Hot! Diesel ban approved for German cities to cut pollution

[Sunny]

ICE is on it's way out. 2021 is too soon, but by 2030 they will be gone. Bye bye, game over.

I frankly don't know by when ICE will be "gone", but I think it really depends on your definition of "gone". I can think of several -

- Will start seeing diminishing market share in the main markets
- Will dip below some threshold % of new car sales globally
- And on the other extreme: No more ICE cars sold ever (which will take a long while if ever)

Technology adoptions usually happen in a S-curve - slow at first, then has the hockey stick moment where it shoots up and then tapers out while some small markets hold out for a long time. Here is a good example - adoption of smartphones in EU5 -

Here is the same for multiple technologies over time showing the same general S shape -

So anyone can pick their own definition of "gone" and be right. For some, going from being the dominant means of transportation to being still used in mining is apparently good enough! For some, still being used in <insert tiny market> means it is still not "gone". I doubt the global financial markets will take the same lenient view. For them, once an opposing tech is past the inflection point (the hockey stick point above), it is game over cause it doesn't make sense to invest in the old tech any more. So the crucial question I think is not when do you stop making new ICE? But when do you stop making new factories that make ICE? And I think that point is nearer than many think.

 

[Matski]

An OT question but how much addictional electricity a country would need if all the cars become electrified ? 20-40% ?

In the UK we drive about 380,000,000,000 miles per year.

A BMW i3, 27kwh per 100 miles, so that's 87,210,000,000 kwh, if we all drove i3's.

In 2014 we used 308,000,000,000 kwh of electricity.

So, we'd be looking at about a 30% increase in national demand.

 

[Deleted member 25]

Now, in terms of economics, will the gain induced by the saved amount of fuel be bigger than the cost of the additional electricity consumption ?

 

[Matski]

I frankly don't know by when ICE will be "gone", but I think it really depends on your definition of "gone". I can think of several -

- Will start seeing diminishing market share in the main markets
- Will dip below some threshold % of new car sales globally
- And on the other extreme: No more ICE cars sold ever (which will take a long while if ever)

Technology adoptions usually happen in a S-curve - slow at first, then has the hockey stick moment where it shoots up and then tapers out while some small markets hold out for a long time. Here is a good example - adoption of smartphones in EU5 -

Here is the same for multiple technologies over time showing the same general S shape -

So anyone can pick their own definition of "gone" and be right. For some, going from being the dominant means of transportation to being still used in mining is apparently good enough! For some, still being used in <insert tiny market> means it is still not "gone". I doubt the global financial markets will take the same lenient view. For them, once an opposing tech is past the inflection point (the hockey stick point above), it is game over cause it doesn't make sense to invest in the old tech any more. So the question I ask is not when do you stop making new ICE? But when do you stop making new factories that make ICE? And I think that point is nearer than many think.

I'm not sure those things are analogous to EV's. For a start, the majority of those things are considerably smaller purchases, and many of them offer something that wasn't just better than something that came before - but did something totally new. An EV isn't going to do anything for me that my 120d won't.

 

[Mick Briesgau]

Expect Swedish cities to follow as well. Swedish media is praising Germany right now.

Idiots.

 

[Sunny]

^I am sure there was a Matski from the 1910s that argued what does an "auto" do my horse carriage won't.

 

[Matski]

Now, in terms of economics, will the gain induced by the saved amount of fuel be bigger than the cost of the additional electricity consumption ?

I wouldn't know where to begin with that. Our government makes a lot of money from taxing road fuel. If they lost that revenue, they would want to make it elsewhere - I'd be surprised if, in the long run consumers will save any money owning an EV, the government will simply introduce a cost per mile tax, as they've talked about doing before... more likely that car sharing, rather than EV's, will do away with that expense to be honest. Plus, for a couple of decades, there simply won't be the pool of affordable second hand cars we have now, which means more people would have to finance newer cars, which will cost a lot.

To generate that kind of power cleanly, we'd need several times the amount of windfarms too, which would take time, and significant investment.

 

[Matski]

^I am sure there was a Matski from the 1910s that argued what does an "auto" do my horse carriage won't.

Ah... good ole' great-grand-pappy 'Ski. He'd 'a probably been stealin' Jagermeister from the Kaiser, and eating his carriages horse in a pita bread with some salad and Chilli-Sauce.

I still don't think it's analogous. The cost to benefit ratio to implement the technology has to be a factor also, and a £30,000 car that allows me to do the same things my current car does, isn't the same as paying £20 a month to get access to humanity's accumulated knowledge, pictures of kittens, and and a truly unfathomable amount of porn, from a device in my pocket.

edit: As I turn of the wick on my oil lamp, better wording occurs to me... an EV won't change how I get to work. Most of those devices did change the way people did things, they didn't just do the same thing, but with different gubbins under the hood.

Self-driving cars are where it's at for a real change in society, but it still brings with it immense cost, and inevitable infrastructure changes.

 

[klier]

An EV isn't going to do anything for me that my 120d won't.

Well for starters, it will allow you to visit London by car without paying. Or other European cities where older diesels are completely forbidden, like several cities in Holland, even a big one like Rotterdam. Your 120d may pass now, but won't in 5 years.
And secondly, an EV will in not too long be a hell of a lot cheaper to buy and maintain than an ICE car. And when that happens, the tipping point will be reached, and there will be no turning back.

 

[Matski]

Well for starters, it will allow you to visit London by car without paying. Or other European cities where older diesels are completely forbidden, like several cities in Holland, even a big one like Rotterdam. Your 120d may pass now, but won't in 5 years.
And secondly, an EV will in not too long be a hell of a lot cheaper to buy and maintain than an ICE car. And when that happens, the tipping point will be reached, and there will be no turning back.

London is a different story... you need rocks in your head to want to drive into London - it's just not sensible unless you have a sexual fetish for traffic jams, not being able to park anywhere, and kamikaze cyclists. I already choose not to drive into London, EV or no EV. The only times I have, in 20 years, is with a rented Van to help my sister move furniture (I also needed to drive to the reform club once). It's the most populous city in Europe and still has one of the higher population densities... car ownership there cannot be extrapolated - it has 42 times the total population of our next densest city.

As for costs, I've not yet spent enough on car purchases in 22 years of driving to buy one new EV, I buy second (third, fourth, fifth, sixth!) hand. At the moment, that's not really viable with EV's. If I get another 5 years from the 1-er, it will have cost me £41 a month to buy. Can't even rent the battery for a Renault Zoe for that much.

Anyway, I'm not a luddite, and I'm not anti-EV, they'll come... but I think people are getting too caught up in headlines and hype.

 

[klier]

Anyway, I'm not a luddite, and I'm not anti-EV, they'll come... but I think people are getting too caught up in headlines and hype.

Caught up by the goddamn bad air quality in my city, which is below EU norm and the government does nothing about it. I can TASTE those freaking diesel engines.

Just like the U.S is held captive by the NRA, EU is held captive by the German car lobby in Brussels.

 

[Zonda]

Now, in terms of economics, will the gain induced by the saved amount of fuel be bigger than the cost of the additional electricity consumption ?

Short answer, yes.
It largely depends on where you are in the world. Also the value given today might change drastically in the coming years as prices on solar drop, and adoption increases rapidly.

A friend of mine estimated that his solar panels will pay for themselves within 20 years while not paying an additional cent for gas or electricity. I've seen tests and articles in Sweden, excluding EV charging where solar pays for itself within 15 years for normal size houses. And that's at today's prices and technology.

 

[Matski]

Caught up by the goddamn bad air quality in my city, which is below EU norm and the government does nothing about it. I can TASTE those freaking diesel engines.

Just like the U.S is held captive by the NRA, EU is held captive by the German car lobby in Brussels.

 

[klier]

You well know I dislike the Tesla hey train and their stupid cars. But I don't even smell those old diesel cars, I can taste them on my tongue and it's disgusting.
Banning them is 100% justified. A very wise decision.

And BTW, hospitals have resistant human flesh eating bacteria in the air, so that doesn't sound very safe either.

 

[Cashmere]

To add to Sunny's post on technology adoption, have a look at the following numbers:

Global EV Sales

Time to sell 1st million cars: 18 years
Time to sell 2nd million cars: 18 months
Time to sell 3rd million cars: 8 months

By the time the 4th million are sold, EV production will be well into its stride and the sales are only going to get faster. Carmakers are more likely to invest money into a segment that is growing in sales as opposed to a segment which is saturated/declining.

I got back from a battery conference last week and I'm blown away by the kind of development that is taking place in the labs and the staggering amount of capital investment going into manufacturing facilities. Battery technology is going to get significantly better and cheaper in the next 2 years. EV Demand will outstretch supply for the next 3 years. Until supply stabilizes, people will continue to ride out their existing ICE cars with the intent of replacing them with an EV as their next car as opposed to replacing it with another ICE.

2021 is still ~ 36 months away.

12 months ago, no one would have believed that:

• Porsche will axe diesel engines from their range
• FCA will announce an end date to diesel production cars.
• Germany would ban Diesels.
• Ferrari will announce an electric supercar

 

[Matski]

• Porsche will axe diesel engines from their range
• FCA will announce an end date to diesel production cars.
• Germany would ban Diesels.
• Ferrari will announce an electric supercar

3 of those things are not because batteries got better.

 

[Cashmere]

3 of those things are not because batteries got better.

My point exactly. There are so many other external factors that are changing outside of the improvement in battery tech which will expedite the adoption of electric transport. In addition to these:

• More cities will ban diesels.
• Carbon taxes will continue to rise.
• In the last 10 years, the general population has become far more aware (esp the younger generations) that climate change is very real and also man-made. The awareness and emphasis of decarbonizing transport is now greater then it has ever been before.
• In metropolitan cities, Electric bikes/scooters are going to eat into ICE sales from the low end.

 

[Betty Swollocks]

Well for starters, it will allow you to visit London by car without paying.

And do you think once people start buying EV in a big way it will remain free?

This is why I can't get excited about any tax savings or congestion zone savings, because eventually the governments and local councils will just tax the EV cars in the same way as they did the ICE vehicles. They're not going to accept a drop in tax revenue.

 

[Matski]

You well know I dislike the Tesla hey train and their stupid cars. But I don't even smell those old diesel cars, I can taste them on my tongue and it's disgusting.
Banning them is 100% justified. A very wise decision.

And BTW, hospitals have resistant human flesh eating bacteria in the air, so that doesn't sound very safe either.

Lol, I know, t'was a joke.

Genuine question, do you live in Rotterdam? I know the air quality in some of the UK's Southern Sea Port towns is affected by the fumes from ships and the like, do you think that's a problem there?

 

[Busty]

Been saying this for a while that the internal combustion engine is on its deathbed. By 2021 (possibly sooner), sales of gasoline cars will fall of a cliff.

With all due respect but this is the E-mobility zealot hubris that I have witnessed so many times over the last 15 years. Criticizing the entire industry for its arrogance and ignorance is justified and necessary. But the arrogance and ignorance with which the criticism is brought forward is a stunt. Many predictions by electrification gurus have not proved right. Many products still do not fulfil basic user requirements. And most users do not feel the need to be (perceived as) pathfinders. The sales numbers speak volumes.

What customers of course also don't want is: to be betrayed. In the present situation, many topics are mixed up and criminal behavior (that naturally requires punishment and compensation of victims) is used as a thought-terminating cliché in a very complex discussion. The 'all German OEMs are full of f**ked up, lazy, corrupt, and antiquated fraudsters' hymn is very easy to sing but does not raise awareness and will not lead to innovation etc.

Let me be clear: Of course, there are tech revolutions ahead and they are necessary as climate change is real. Mass e-mobility is one of those revolutions and probably part of a solution. Not more, not less. Replacing each ICE vehicle 1:1 with an EV does not work for many reasons and is not sufficient. Infrastructure needs to be reconsidered, very thoroughly. Mind sets and individual consumption need to change or to be changed. So, not only the OEMs but also politics and every single one of us is required to participate and to open their minds.