Hot! Tesla Master Plan Pt.2 (The Next 10 Years)

[klier]

I think he secretly sniffs rocket fuel from a brown paper bag.

In his secret cave where he stores all his classics and exotics

 

[wL0316]

Some Model S and X owners had complained of long lines at the busiest Supercharger stations, pointing out that some cars were left for hours after the battery was done charging. Some owners, apparently, were using the chargers as free parking while shopping or dining nearby.

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Why can't they integrate parking system like those in Tokyo with auto charge system? When the car is fully charge, it will be autonomously driven to free parking lots without taking up the charging station.

 

[martinbo]

This dope-head beat entire nations' multi-billion dollar space programs to being the first to not only launch a rocket into orbit that also land the same rocket back on the surface under its own power - on a lilting platform at sea as well for that matter.

I feel his Mars mission aspirations are a stretch too far. He could be put those efforts and research into further-developing less-polluting, more environmentally sustaining solutions.

I laugh at how people deride Musk - here's a guy that addresses some seriously complex technical challenges on a scale not achieved by far, far bigger organisations and institutions but he's thought to be a fool who doesn't understand financials.

 

[KiwiRob]

Why tax EV's based on weight ?
They "take a toll on the roads" !? Some heavy BS.
Are ICE cars over 2 tons penalised too ?

Because they have to find some way to tax them, they can’t be taxed on co2 like an ICE vehicle and they have to contribute to wear and tear on the roads like every existing car has to.

Trucks case more damage to roads than cars which is accepted fact, partially due to weight partially due to torque, one of the explanations I have heard in the media is the Model X is really heavy, has massive torque, which means it causes light truck like damage to the roads. I don’t know if this is a correct assumption or not.

The number of ICE cars sold in Norway which weigh over 2000kg wouldn’t be that high, most of them are probably Tesla’s.

 

[mini_cooper4]

Because they have to find some way to tax them, they can’t be taxed on co2 like an ICE vehicle and they have to contribute to wear and tear on the roads like every existing car has to.

Trucks case more damage to roads than cars which is accepted fact, partially due to weight partially due to torque, one of the explanations I have heard in the media is the Model X is really heavy, has massive torque, which means it causes light truck like damage to the roads. I don’t know if this is a correct assumption or not.

The number of ICE cars sold in Norway which weigh over 2000kg wouldn’t be that high, most of them are probably Tesla’s.

Then any EV car should be taxed accordingly.
It's clearly a tax aimed at Tesla and Tesla alone.
Cars that weigh 1800, 1900 or even 700kg. take a toll on the roads too. Tax them less but still tax them.
Corrupt politicians are way too obvious.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

It is strange how Norway is trying to get rid of the petrol cars, but in the same time it is one of the biggest oil producers. It's like a drug dealer, who doesn't take drugs for himself

 

[KiwiRob]

It is strange how Norway is trying to get rid of the petrol cars, but in the same time it is one of the biggest oil producers. It's like a drug dealer, who doesn't take drugs for himself

Lots of strange things happen in Norway, last week the Oslo city council increased the road tolls for ICE vehicles entering the city, all part of the plan to stop people driving, but the idiots also increased the ticket prices on all form of public transport, the net result is it didn’t work and people still drive.

 

[Centurion]

It is strange how Norway is trying to get rid of the petrol cars, but in the same time it is one of the biggest oil producers. It's like a drug dealer, who doesn't take drugs for himself

A 10-20% drop in oil consumption domestic fossil fuel consumption over the next decade, could be offset by an increase in exports. Billions of people around the world don’t have access to electricity let alone running water in their home. For them, the idea of changing an electric car at home is far fetched dream, and petrol powered cars will continue to reign in underdeveloped parts of the world for many more decades.

Further more, oil has wide use cases besides petroleum. Gadgets and “throw away” fast fashion from Zara and Boohoo are made of polymers(plastic & polyester) which is a derivative of crude oil. While fuel consumption is decreasing, consumerism continuing to grow and perpetuating the use of fossil fuels.

 

[wL0316]

Tesla has reached a deal to build a factory in China
China is shaping up to be a huge market for electric vehicles
By Andrew LiptakOctober 22, 2017 10:00 am

Tesla has made an arrangement with Shanghai’s government to built a manufacturing plant in the city’s free-trade zone, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cites reports from people briefed on the company’s plans.

The WSJ reports that Tesla will own the factory, rather than partner with a local manufacturer, as it typically the case. Chinese officials have recently begun to consider relaxing some of the more stringent rules concerning local partners, as a way to encourage electric vehicle manufacturers. The arrangement would be the “first of its kind for a foreign auto maker,” but will likely not allow Tesla to avoid a 25 percent import tariff.

In June, Tesla confirmed that it was in talks to build a factory in Shanghai, ending months of speculation about the company’s plans. At the time, a spokesperson explained that while the company anticipated keeping most of its production in the US, it did “need to establish local factories to ensure affordability for the markets they serve.”

The world’s largest market for automobiles, China has recently worked to encourage the development of a robust market for EVs. In September, Xin Guobin, the country’s vice minister of industry and information technology, noted at a forum that the country is beginning to phase out sales of fossil fuel vehicles as it works to cut its carbon emissions, and that existing manufacturers will need to begin building more EVs in the coming years. As such, establishing a factory in China will be a major deal for Tesla as it works to ramp up its production around the world.

We’ve reached out to Tesla for comment, and will update this story if we hear back.

Source: Tesla has reached a deal to build a factory in China | The Verge

 

[Matski]

Model III at 5000 unit output per week...




... by late Q1 2018.


More detail in a paragraph or two from the Shareholder letter:

Model 3 has been designed for manufacturability, so the car itself is not difficult to build. That said, the Model 3 production process will be vastly more automated than the production process of Model S, Model X or almost any other car on the market today, and bringing this level of automation online is simply challenging in the early stages of the ramp.

We continue to make progress resolving early bottlenecks related to these issues, and there remain no fundamental problems with our supply chain or any of our production processes. Several manufacturing lines, such as drive unit, seat assembly, paint shop and stamping, have demonstrated a manufacturing ability in excess of 1,000 units per week during burst builds of short duration. Other lines, such as battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly. Likewise,cell production at Gigafactory 1 continues to ramp, and current cell production makes it one of the largest battery cell manufacturing facilities in the world.

...

While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear. Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January. With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate.


Tesla (TSLA) announces Q3 2017 earnings: wider losses than expected on record revenue

 

[Centurion]

What a disappointing earning call. At this rate, European deliveries won't start until H2 2019.

 

[chonkoa]

Good earnings from my POV.
Keep burning through that cash, for all I care.

 

[Cashmere]

Scaling up to 5K cars per week is extremely difficult with their current infrastructure. The Fremont factory is already bursting at the seams with only Model S,X and powerwall production. I don't see them getting to 5K/week number until Q3 next year.

Unless the Gigafactory gets finished before 2019, 10K/week is going to be unlikely. Production and transportation of 10K drive units & batteries per week between Nevada & Fremont is going to be a massive challenge to deal with from a logistical standpoint.

Given the history of the Model S & X, the first batch of cars did have lots QC issues. I'd be surprised if the Model 3 doesn't have its fair share.

 

[Centurion]

Scaling up to 5K cars per week is extremely difficult with their current infrastructure. The Fremont factory is already bursting at the seams with only Model S,X and powerwall production. I don't see them getting to 5K/week number until Q3 next year.

Unless the Gigafactory gets finished before 2019, 10K/week is going to be unlikely. Production and transportation of 10K drive units & batteries per week between Nevada & Fremont is going to be a massive challenge to deal with from a logistical standpoint.

Given the history of the Model S & X, the first batch of cars did have lots QC issues. I'd be surprised if the Model 3 doesn't have its fair share.

The longer their “beta” production drags on the more their first mover advantage diminish. Rival car manufacturer are rubbing their hands at the idea of copying some of Tesla’s UI packaging. VAG will start flooding the market with electric cars in 2020 and unlike th Model 3, will be a available for immediate delivery in several markets.

More disappointingly, these production issues pushes back the launch of th Model Y SUV which will be a more practical alternative to the Model 3.

I wonder how Tesla will manage QA and customer issues. During the early days of the Model S, Tesla threw themselves on customers the second they had an issue. Doing the same for tens of thousands of Model 3 customers at the same time will be highly costly.

 

[marley71]

Last week when VW chairman was bashing TSLA and TSLA started in with their usual lies, this time saying it was confirmed that they had a deal to manufacture in China I bought put options at 332.5 for Fridays expiration. Bought them at 1.21 on Tuesday or Monday, sold on Friday for 14. Thanks TSLA.
TSLA is so overvalued its not even funny. I will continue to go long puts every time they spike up. I don't believe half of what comes out of this rumor machine.

 

[SCOTT27]

Does Tesla have 10 years?

 

[sako97]

Does Tesla have 10 years?

Hard to tell, honestly. They'll really be in over their heads next year - onwards.

I'm wondering when and if there'll be a gen. 2 Model S.

 

[Matski]

So, with the announcement of BMW Group, Daimler, Ford, and VW Group launching their joint venture charging network in Europe (IONITY), it strikes me that the idea of a Tesla Supercharger station seems somewhat limited?


BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company and the Volkswagen Group with Audi and Porsche form Joint Venture

IONITY – Pan-European High-Power Charging Network Enables E-Mobility for Long Distance Travel +++ Joint Venture to build a High-Power-Charging (HPC) Network for electric vehicles starts operation +++ IONITY will implement and operate about 400 fast charging stations across European major thoroughfares until 2020 +++ Build-up of 20 stations in multiple European countries starts already in 2017

IONITY – Pan-European High-Power Charging Network Enables E-Mobility for Long Distance Travel

• Joint Venture to build a High-Power-Charging (HPC) Network for electric vehicles starts operation

• IONITY will implement and operate about 400 fast charging stations across European major thoroughfares until 2020

• Build-up of 20 stations in multiple European countries starts already in 2017

• A charging capacity of up to 350 kW enables to reduce charging time significantly when compared to existing systems

• Multi-brand compatibility with current and future generations of electric vehicles through Combined Charging System (CCS)

 

[Busty]

^That's pretty much what I (and various others) kept talking about. That and the predictable problems Tesla is facing right now. If the competition is willing to take some risks now, they will be able to close existing gaps.
The Tesla story nicely illustrates what a complicated breed customers are.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

So, with the announcement of BMW Group, Daimler, Ford, and VW Group launching their joint venture charging network in Europe (IONITY), it strikes me that the idea of a Tesla Supercharger station seems somewhat limited?


BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company and the Volkswagen Group with Audi and Porsche form Joint Venture

IONITY – Pan-European High-Power Charging Network Enables E-Mobility for Long Distance Travel +++ Joint Venture to build a High-Power-Charging (HPC) Network for electric vehicles starts operation +++ IONITY will implement and operate about 400 fast charging stations across European major thoroughfares until 2020 +++ Build-up of 20 stations in multiple European countries starts already in 2017

IONITY – Pan-European High-Power Charging Network Enables E-Mobility for Long Distance Travel

• Joint Venture to build a High-Power-Charging (HPC) Network for electric vehicles starts operation

• IONITY will implement and operate about 400 fast charging stations across European major thoroughfares until 2020

• Build-up of 20 stations in multiple European countries starts already in 2017

• A charging capacity of up to 350 kW enables to reduce charging time significantly when compared to existing systems

• Multi-brand compatibility with current and future generations of electric vehicles through Combined Charging System (CCS)

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Now waiting for the international press to announce the next German cartel. This could hardly be possible without the so called secret meetings