Kilcrohane's view of the Automotive Industry and Global Economy


thanks for the comment , Sovereign. Just pick you up on the quality thing.

But if Jaguar is bad, and getting worse, because the assembly workers can't be bothered, Land Rover is worse again, probably as bad as it's ever been, even under BL, after having improved somewhat under BMW and Ford:

http://babyrr.com/forum/Thread-What-s-wrong-with-yours?page=8

- that's an in 3rd year of production product, that's based on a fairly ordinary 8yr old Ford Mondeo/Volvo S60 product technically, yet its build quality is still appalling, with no apparent improvement by L/R since 2011.

But what I have read is that Land Rover sales are stronger than ever. And I further reiterate myself by stating here that Land Rover still makes the finest looking off roaders on road and design does make a big impact on people buying decision. In my opinion the current breed of Jaguars lack the design flare of their predecessors that kept the company afloat for a very long time even with the quality glitches, and although the quality aspect has improved from the past, that may not be enough to compete at the very top. Jaguar needs that design "mojo" from the era of Sir William Lyons. Each new Jaguar from the 50s, 60s and the 70s up to mid 1980s was a masterpiece and an improvement over the predecessor.
 
But what I have read is that Land Rover sales are stronger than ever.

what you have read is press release reproductions by the sycophantic media of JLR's own, easily-debunkable figures.

The overwhelming majority of JLR's sales figures are actually wholesales, not retail or actual paying end-customers, which explains why the media can report the phenomenal sales success of the 'Stunning' F-type, but at the same time the car itself is piling up on dealers lots, as JLR books 'sales' to dealers and national sales companies as end-sales.

And frankly, I would not trust that company with the time of day, let alone reported record sales every month at face value, given that a JLR exec told a respected industry analyst that Jaguar was drinking in the last chance saloon, and they and their media sycophants blatantly lied about the weight loss on the new R/Rovers, and the claim for the F-type to be a Porsche 911-killing sports car, when independent testing shows it can't even beat a Cayman or a half-the-price blue-collar Corvette. Liars can't be trusted.
 
JLR's mates in the media* re-announce old news from 2012:

http://europe.autonews.com/article/...ild-evoque-and-freelander-suvs-in-china-plant

- this 'news', the JV with Chery, was first announced back in early 2012. The plant was supposed to have been up and running by now.

JLR and its media mates re-announce old news to 1) keep JLR looking 'happening', to impress saps, and 2) to cover up the fact that basically sweet f.a. is actually happening at JLR, as almost by the hour now, everyone else, but especially the Germans, are launching real new product in a blizzard of introductions, and quite possibly 3) the news yesterday that Chery's domestic competitor Geely, will start exporting Volvos from two Chinese factories, thereby giving Geely/Volvo great production cost and exchange rate advantages, compared with Chery's JV partner JLR, could also have well prompted this self-defeating, desperation-advertising re-announcement of over two year old 'news'.

* 'Nick Gibbs' - the author of this recycled news, happens to also write for Pistonheads and Autocar, but I'm sure Nick is entirely independent and unbiased when reporting on JLR for Automotive News Europe - and if you believe that...
 
as predicted, against all the naysayers and finance people here:

British pound value set to soar, say currency traders

http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2014/06/23/british-pound-value-set-soar-say-traders/

thanks to the deliberately got-up housing boom in the UK, interest rates will now have to rise, driving the pound up, and up, and up, crucifying UK manufacturing exporters, not least car makers.

'Britain’s pound is the most coveted currency among traders, who are betting a rally that pushed it to the strongest level since 2008 is just getting started.'

'just getting started' - this presented as 'good news' by finance people for the British pound and by implication the UK, will actually be like a punch in the guts to the likes of GM Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port operation, which is trying to export cars to the eurozone on a profit margin of no more than €500 per unit to start with, in the ultra-competitive C-segment Golf class.

The move in the pound against the euro of ~10% in the last 12 months has wiped that potential profit out and more, even with the 3,000 workforce at Ellesmere Port making unprecedented concessions in pay and conditions to secure the new Astra from 2015.

The Ellesmere Port workforce may as well offer their first-borns to GM, because thanks to the UK's now dyed-in-the-wool mania for trying to get rich through housing and subsequent boom-bust trajectory of the economy, an employer like GM will eventually be forced to move all its production to a much more stable environment, especially with the lure of much lower wages on offer in eastern Europe. It would cost GM about £250m maximum to close Ellesmere Port, given that Opel Bochum is going to cost them €500m. GM would get that back in lower currencies and/or lower wages in Germany/Spain/Poland on the production of the new Astra within a couple of years tops.

'Hedge funds and other large speculators are more bullish on sterling than any other major currency, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington.'

'The pound climbed above US$1.70 last week for the first time since August 2009 as the Bank of England (BoE) hinted it may raise interest rates sooner than traders expect. Strategists from Commerzbank AG to Wells Fargo & Co boosted their forecasts in anticipation of further gains.'

Watching the inexorable, accelerating rise of the pound, you can almost feel the consternation of Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Ford(engines), JLR and BMW(MINI and engines), as they see their margins shrink and shrink or even turn to loss on every unit produced, solely due to the pound's rise against the euro, dollar, yuan and so on.

As I said at the start of this 'Kilcrohane's views... ' thing, it is so obvious what is going to happen - 2008's crash on stilts - but it seems no one is either capable of stopping it or perhaps don't want to stop it, as they see the paper value of their house rise by an average £500 a week, every week. Beats working, I suppose, but it sure is one certain way to destroy a country and its manufacturing base.
 
'GBP breaking above £/$1.80 before the end of 2014 appears highly probable'

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46142.html

- which is what I said almost two months ago:

The pound will keep on rising as a result, hitting maybe £1=$1.80 and £1=€1.30 by the end of this year. 29.04.14

And if that happens - $1.80 - it's cataclysmic for JLR, thanks to the Osborne Boom, just as Jaguar Cars was crippled in the late 1980s by the Lawson Boom, and BMW threw the towel in with Rover Group over the strong pound/weak Dmark in the late 1990s 'Cool Britannia' period.

All artificial periods of economic prosperity that directly led to terrible crashes - except the late 90's/early 2000s DotCom Bust, that was obscured by 9/11 - and successively hollowed out the UK's manufacturing base, not to mention the 2002-2007 period of 'abolished Boom and Bust' under Brown/Blair, that led to the crash of 2008.

The UK is no place to do volume car production. The entire country is geared up for serial financial bubbles, with a willing populace, at the expense of a stable environment for manufacturing. Before too long all it will contain is very low volume/very high margin end assembly, the likes of Bentley, Rolls Royce and AMG-Aston Martin. The margins are so high here, and all the high value components shipped in from abroad, that it makes little difference what the currency is doing, as long as the German owner is able to proclaim 'hand built in England'. That's the future.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-strong-pound-its-a-mark-of-our-success.html

'Do stop whining about the strong pound[British exporting industry]: it’s a mark of our success'

'The pound is getting stronger — a bit too strong for some. Sir Mike Rake, president of the Confederation of British Industry, has urged the Bank of England to hold off from increasing interest rates because “sterling … is much too high'

- exactly as I predicted, except it has happened even quicker - less than 2 months:


The rise of the pound, ... , is a massive factor, one being ignored by the UK press, for obvious reasons, but almost daily now it is cropping up literally on the bottom line[of car makers].

This IS happening behind the scenes, and JLR especially will be being screwed to the floor right now by the pound's huge, unwarranted and perverse rise, given the UK's underlying true economic position.

It will eventually come out, ... , and with the certain to follow calls from the CBI, Institute of Directors, Chambers of Commerce etc. within months now, for help with the 'strong pound', i.e. no interest rate rises ever, and more money printing, 'QE', to debase the currency further, to drive down its exchange value.

- 29th April 2014
The CBI are only showing how incredibly damaging this mad rise in the pound is, to what's left of British manufacturing exporters, all caused by the UK's obsession with getting rich quick through housing. It's all coming out now, but far too late, and compared to the bankers in the City the CBI et al have diddly squat power to change policy, as it is the money men who pull the strings of their puppets in government.

Also perhaps worth noting that the Jeremy Warners(the author of the above Telegraph article) of this world, that is, propagandists for the vested-interests status quo, who claim that:

'manufacturing is less than 10pc of the UK economy, [and] tends to be niche, high value-added, and relatively price insensitive.'
may have a hard time explaining why the likes of the already very profitable Mercedes-Benz and BMW will be moving some production of their smaller cars to Mexico from not exactly high-wage countries like Hungary and UK, and why Honda UK is throttling back production, Toyota ditching the UK-built Avensis, and GM looking at losing money on every Astra built in Ellesmere Port compared to Ruesselsheim or Gliwice.

The Jeremy Warners of this world don't care about workers in car plants on Merseyside, or Swindon, or Derbyshire, or Solihull, they care about the hand that feeds them, which is making billions and billions out of the current 15% annual increase in property prices in the UK, especially in London, and couldn't care less about manufacturing, which takes time, investment and a stable macro economic background.
 
Look at the graph below for GBP vs EUR for the last 20 years. Given that the range for GBP vs EUR over the last 20 years is 1.04 to 1.70, the moves for the last few years are relatively small. The current level of 1.24 isn't even above the average. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

gbpeur.webp
 
You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

And the '“sterling … is much too high"' CBI?

Or the MPs on the Treasury Select Committee today giving it to Carney in the neck because they likewise are getting it in the neck from their constituents and bosses of companies residing in their constituencies - where there still remains some manufacturing in the UK, generally 'up North' and in the Midlands - because the reality is manufacturing exporters are being crushed by the ridiculous rise in the pound, due to this 'recovery'?

It's got sweet f.a. to do with historical values of the pound 10, 20, 30 or even 6 years ago, at the time of the crash in 2008, when the pound lost ~25% of its trade-weighted value.

The fact is the pound in the 'abolished boom and bust' period of 2002-2007 was horrendously overvalued, as it was in the late 1990s under another media-hyped 'Cool Britannia' episode, when BMW threw the towel in at Rover Group, and likewise when the post-'Big Bang' deregulation on the London stock market and associated housing bubble centred on London saw sterling go to $2.40, and killed Sir John Egan's independent Jaguar Cars in the US.

Nothing changes in UK. The pound, driven by 'hot money' speculators, the colluding media hype of Britain perennially 'bouncing back' from its actual 100-year plus long economic decline, and the actual more pedestrian explanation of these 'recoveries' always resting on nothing more than a deliberately got-up, unsustainable housing bubble, to rinse Joe Average of all his savings.

The fact is, all those high points on your historical graph just show the pound at its most egregiously overvalued points, as opposed to its merely ridiculously overvalued point right now, of ~€1.25 and $1.70.

The fact is that the UK has two, entirely separately operating economies, one the usual economy that most developed economies have, based on adding value and its ancillary service activity, and then in the UK a dwarfing bubble economy, based on housing and the City of London. The first needs stability to thrive, the latter constant perturbation, from boom to bust and back, repeat ad infinitum.

The first, real economy needs a weaker currency, in the UK's case, as it has run a structural trade deficit, of now around £100bn/year in visibles, for decades.

The second, bubble economy needs a rising currency to give windfall gains to overseas investors speculating on London's property bubble, who then see double gains, from the investment going up say 30% per annum in local currency, and again when converted back to rubles, yuan and dollars, for the Russian oligarchs, Chinese billionaires and so on.

The first, real economy needs sterling at or just below parity to the euro, and around $1.20, so roughly a 25% depreciation compared to today's value.

The second, bubble economy needs absolutely no upper limit to sterling's value, as it's all up-side to the non-domiciled, tax-avoiding off-shored speculators.

And that, this huge irreconcilable difference between the real and the bubble economy in the UK, ladies and gents, is why the UK is absolutely and utterly shagged, when it comes to being a place to have a real economy, and why manufacturers should and will up sticks and move to where they are appreciated, not just with lip service as Carney is trying to pretend today to the MPs, when he'll say the near opposite in his next Mansion House speech to his true stockholders, the bankers.
 
Look at the graph below for GBP vs EUR for the last 20 years. Given that the range for GBP vs EUR over the last 20 years is 1.04 to 1.70, the moves for the last few years are relatively small. The current level of 1.24 isn't even above the average. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

gbpeur.webp
Didn't expect such a poor post coming from you.
It doesn't say much since times change and so does market and global economy.
Not much then could be too much now.
 
This isn't a thread about the automotive industry and global economy. It's just a vessel for Kilcrohane to post his relentless sixth-form diatribe about how the UK is doomed and will take JLR with it.
 
This isn't a thread about the automotive industry and global economy. It's just a vessel for Kilcrohane to post his relentless sixth-form diatribe about how the UK is doomed and will take JLR with it.

Leave rants aside. The quality of Kilcro's posts is far from bad. He has solid points. There are always at least two opinions on a certain matter.
I just expect other's responses to be of higher quality too. It's a thread dedicated to Kilcro's views and opinions(you can add rants if you want). Most of us think Kilcro is a contributing member and I guess that's one of the main reasons he is still here. Let's not ruin the thread. If someone has a solid point -Go ahead.. otherwise I think it's best to ignore Kilcro and his posts.

PS: In the last couple of posts Kilcro is perfectly spot on and there's hardly a second opinion IMO.
Export and manufacturing will continue to die off with some small ups from time to time. It's obvious.
UK's economy will live to see many, many more days... it's "just" really, really bad in the long term.
For me that's no news but it's great to see someone discussing a serious matter.
 
Let's not ruin the thread.

Not trying to ruin a thread or trying to stop Kilcrohane posting anything. Just pointing out that the thread title has no relation to the content.


And at the very least, I'm dying to know why somebody would go to all this effort constructing such eloquent posts, telling the world his thoughts on the UK economy and why it's doomed, on a forum mainly discussing German cars. Surely there would be a bigger audience on an economic forum? Kilcrohane obviously has lots to say on the matter, so why not tell it to an appropriate audience?

The mind boggles!!
 
Not trying to ruin a thread or trying to stop Kilcrohane posting anything. Just pointing out that the thread title has no relation to the content.


And at the very least, I'm dying to know why somebody would go to all this effort constructing such eloquent posts, telling the world his thoughts on the UK economy and why it's doomed, on a forum mainly discussing German cars. Surely there would be a bigger audience on an economic forum? Kilcrohane obviously has lots to say on the matter, so why not tell it to an appropriate audience?

The mind boggles!!

The answer is simple.
He hates the UK but then again it's one of the most hated countries in the world.
People get used to stuff.

PS: I do get your point Betty and understand your complaint but I don't see how it could change anything.
Do you really care why he hates the UK and why he does it here and not somewhere else?
Hate has no boundaries. Everyone has his own reason and is always right for himself.
He might be posting here because he's a german-o-phile and happens to love cars or maybe just because there's "German" after www.
...but then again who are we to be here wasting our times discussing someone?
I find his posts way more interesting when I don't try to find his agenda.
In the end - why would anyone care?
 
it's one of the most hated countries in the world.

What has this got to do with anything? I'm just saying the subject of the thread is actually nothing to do with the thread title. I'm not even complaining.


PS: I do get your point Betty and understand your complaint

I'm not complaining.


Do you really care why he hates the UK and why he does it here and not somewhere else?

I've deliberately made no mention of him "hating" the UK. That is not my point.

Maybe I should have added a few emoticons because you've completely misread the tone of my post.
 
What has this got to do with anything? I'm just saying the subject of the thread is actually nothing to do with the thread title. I'm not even complaining.




I'm not complaining.




I've deliberately made no mention of him "hating" the UK. That is not my point.

Maybe I should have added a few emoticons because you've completely misread the tone of my post.

I'm not good in multiquoting.

1. It means one shouldn't care.

2. Even if you are complaining it's OK and sometimes understandable but that's not my point so scratch it.

3. You didn't. I did. I think he hates the UK but I'm not sure why and don't care why.

PS: The whole point was different and one could never get it by taking sentences out of the whole context. It was also a direct answer to your question:

"And at the very least, I'm dying to know why somebody would go to all this effort constructing such eloquent posts, telling the world his thoughts on the UK economy and why it's doomed, on a forum mainly discussing German cars. Surely there would be a bigger audience on an economic forum? Kilcrohane obviously has lots to say on the matter, so why not tell it to an appropriate audience?"
 

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