Europe scraps 2035 new ICE car sales ban

[Centurion]

This is huge and deserves it's on thread!

Europe scraps 2035 new ICE car sales ban
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/consumer/europe-scraps-2035-new-ice-car-sales-ban-report

EU’s 2035 petrol and diesel car ban will be watered down, says senior MEP

Decision would anger environmental campaigners, who say it would amount to ‘gutting’ of green deal

www.theguardian.com

 

[Matski]

A 90% reduction in CO2 still means the vast majority of a manufacturers fleet needs to be either electric or hybrid. If anything - from a product point of view - I think it leaves the industry in the kind of limbo it's in currently.

They need a ground up rethink of how to reduce the emissions caused by transportation, and definitely need to chuck the current legislation in the bin in terms of how they set targets and test emissions for cars, and start again.

 

[Centurion]

A 90% reduction in CO2 still means the vast majority of a manufacturers fleet needs to be either electric or hybrid.

This is just eu bureaucrats pulling arbitrary numbers out of their asses. Nothing is final yet. A deep consultation will be needed with automakers.

They can do financial modelling and run simulation numbers based on data they have to say, on whether any proposal by the eu is economically feasible.

Without flexibility legislation will kill the European auto industry.

 

[Matski]

A deep consultation will be needed with automakers.

They can do financial modelling and run simulation numbers based on data they have to say, on whether any proposal by the eu is economically feasible.

This is the text of the regulation that they'll end up amending...

We're currently in the period when the reduction factor is 15%, in 2030 it goes to 55%, and in 2035 it was set to go to 100%. If the talk is that the 100% will be reduced - then it's still going to be over the 55% (I assume, since no one is talking about the 2030 target)... and since that's still tighter than where we are now, I don't think this decision will represent any kind of return to what we've been used to in the past - which is what I'm sure many car enthusiasts take this headline to mean.

I could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but from what's been said, I don't think I'm far off the mark.

 

[Centurion]

I think car manufacturers will ask for further amendments. Like you said, a reduction of co2 fleet average from 100% to 90% isn't a material change. It means that you will still have to aim to become sell EVs with a small percentage of hybrids.

It's a broad stroke regulation that doesn't suit the market. I can imagine pagani, Gordon Murray, bugatti/rimac and ferrari preferring exceptions for automakers that produce fewer than 100 cars per year and quotas if production is less than 10,000.

This is hot off the press. It will be interesting to following debates on this over the coming weeks and months. Obviously regulations won't return to the past. Reducing emissions is good. However in the medium term it needs to be balanced against consumer demand and job protection.

This is less about what and why and more about how to best approach reduction in emissions.

 

[Design FIRST]

German public service media reporting the obvious yesterday evening. Indignation expressed by the Greens and far left Die Linke. Applause by the moderate left-through the center-into the far right regarding what they perceive as a sustainable "renaissance of the internal combustion engine". Flash surveys conducted by public servce media indicating approval by a public majority. Mind you, those who frequent public service media outlets are usually of "more mature" age-old boomer farts like me. A number of economists and automotive industry analysts being critical and accusing the yaysayers celebrating ICEs as being anything but "open to technology" but rather woefully reactionary and hence quite the opposite. Mixed bag.

Must say...I'm with the Greens ( LOL, who'da thought ?!? and most certainly not due to "environmental considerations" alone) and the critical economists/automotive industry analysts on this one. Focusing on a rearview mirror in attempting to navigate the future. This is going to backfire. China may thank the EU and Germany for this. My 2 Euro cents.

 

[AndreB]

I don't see why EU car brands can't stop selling gas passenger cars 10 years from now, battery technology and charging will evolve.
Even today buying the X3 instead of iX3 doesn't make sense for most people. Anyway we don't have petrol in europe but there's plenty of sun.

 

[Design FIRST]

I don't see why EU car brands can't stop selling gas passenger cars 10 years from now, battery technology and charging will evolve.
Even today buying the X3 instead of iX3 doesn't make sense for most people. Anyway we don't have petrol in europe but there's plenty of sun.

...not to mention the rapid development in making solar panels more efficient. The ability to harvest energy from daylight itself and light reflected from, for example, snow on the ground are impressive. And then there is the rapid development of increasingly efficient storage battery units.

Maybe I'm wrong, but "smart money" to me is not money spent on attempting to wring out every drop of "efficiency" in nearly exhausted technologies that are inherently not the epidome of efficiency. It is money poorly invested. I'm concerned that German manufacturers are going to fall for this. Very short sighted, IMHO.

 

[Centurion]

Even today buying the X3 instead of iX3 doesn't make sense for most people. Anyway we don't have petrol in europe but there's plenty of sun.

This is correct. Some EVs are now categorically superior and well priced in relation to the ice.

However new technology can mature in 5 years but adoption to 25% of the population lag behind by 5 years. Think digital banking. Much better, secure and convenient but for years many people still wanted to touch their money physically and go into a bank to speak to a person. It’s been a 20 year transition that’s still on going in some countries.

What makes the transition to EVs painful for automakers is that:
-Capex is heavy and for economics to work you have to plan and invest 10-15 years ahead.
-If you get it wrong it’s difficult to course correct and you will bleed billions in cash every quarter.
-Chinese car manufacturers are heavily subsidised and don’t have to worry about losses.

 

[klier]

Anyway we don't have petrol in europe but there's plenty of sun.

We do. The North Sea is (or was) filled with it.