Hot! BMW AG: What's Next

[MrRapp]

For as long as the overall majority of cars sold worldwide is still ICE, a combined platform might still be the most sound decision. Maintaining two dedicated platforms side by side for years is just very expensive and what BMW offers as BEV is more than able to compete with dedicated platforms.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

For as long as the overall majority of cars sold worldwide is still ICE, a combined platform might still be the most sound decision. Maintaining two dedicated platforms side by side for years is just very expensive and what BMW offers as BEV is more than able to compete with dedicated platforms.

Just the opposite. Developing an universal platform is more expensive, than having too separate platforms. And the compromises of the shared platform are so huge, that the products could never be on top and after all this is BMW and not Opel to be content with being somewhere in the middle and even lower end.

 

[Sunny]

What a silly strategy delaying the all-EV platform when your competitors are already there.

And worst part is what is the bastardized platform for? Just for i4 and i7? How many of those 2 are they going to sell between 22 and 25 when the dedicated platform supposedly launches? Makes absolutely no f#cking sense.

I know BMW will never admit it, but I bet the plan for was to keep going on the bastardized platform for much longer than 2025 while paying lip service to BEVs, cause according to BMW management even till last year, no one wants BEVs (I can dig up the exact quote). But the market shift in 2020, especially in Europe, took BMW by surprise and now they are forced to react.

 

[SKY]

For as long as the overall majority of cars sold worldwide is still ICE, a combined platform might still be the most sound decision. Maintaining two dedicated platforms side by side for years is just very expensive and what BMW offers as BEV is more than able to compete with dedicated platforms.

Not sure how anyone can honestly believe this when the entire industry is doing exactly the opposite... and BMW itself will also be forced to the two-platform strategy in 4 years time. The difference is by the time BMW starts selling EV only vehicles, VAG will be already using their second gen EV-only platform, and MB will have been selling EV only cars for 4 years.

To me it's clear BMW has not seen this coming and is now amending a mistake. A huge one, it seems.

 

[Sunny]

For as long as the overall majority of cars sold worldwide is still ICE, a combined platform might still be the most sound decision. Maintaining two dedicated platforms side by side for years is just very expensive and what BMW offers as BEV is more than able to compete with dedicated platforms.

Then why launch a dedicated platform in 2025? I bet "the overall majority of cars sold worldwide" will still be ICE in 2025.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

The issue with BMW is that they are a relatively small manufacturer and if the had dedicated theirselves to EVs and made a separate platform, that would lead to losing the economies of scale for their ICE cars and in result losing instead of making money with the ICE vehicles. So they bet on the ICE and f#cked the EVs instead of doing the opposite.

 

[Sunny]

To me it's clear BMW has not seen this coming and is now amending a mistake. A huge one, it seems.

The sad part is they did see it in early 2010s. Only if the leadership had some vision and courage - they could have maybe put Tesla oob and been where Tesla is now.

 

[klier]

What a silly strategy delaying the all-EV platform when your competitors are already there.

None of the competitors are there. Audi simply uses Porsche's platform, and Porsche isn't a mainstream luxury brand that sells 2 million cars worldwide.....so...?
So who of them is 'already there'?

 

[SKY]

None of the competitors are there. Audi simply uses Porsche's platform, and Porsche isn't a mainstream luxury brand that sells 2 million cars worldwide.....so...?
So who of them is 'already there'?

Audi is just using Porsche's platform for the e-tron GT. They will use the PPE for all their electric premium SUVs and also for the e-tron GTS if I am not mistaken. All VAG is launching uses a specific platform. Same goes for MB, which will be launching the EQS and EQE in 2021/early 2022.

And someone please correct me if I am wrong but, is there ANY other brand besides BMW using a shared platform for EV? Cadillac, PSA, Renault, Hyundai/KIA... AFAIK, all are using EV platforms.

Weird thing with BMW, as @Sunny is saying, is that they were there already witrh i3 and i8. BMW could have increased the i lineup with a couple more offerings and had a huge advantage over what everyone else is doing today.

 

[klier]

Cadillac is meaningless. MB is working on it but has nothing, VAG is working on it and Audi is just begging for platforms as the whores they are,
PSA and co I am not sure what you mean because if you think cars like the new 308 are BEV platforms you are very wrong... So again??? 2025 is very soon, and i4 will do just fine until then.
Like said, the vast majority will still be ICE in 2025.

 

[EnI]

The issue with BMW is that they are a relatively small manufacturer and if the had dedicated theirselves to EVs and made a separate platform, that would lead to losing the economies of scale for their ICE cars and in result losing instead of making money with the ICE vehicles. So they bet on the ICE and f#cked the EVs instead of doing the opposite.

Why would any legacy carmaker bet on EVs today when a vast majority of new cars is still ICEVs or at least PHEVs? They do follow the deadlines set by local (namely USA, EU, China) legislatives regarding emissions - and thus transitioning from ICEVs to BEVs properly according to those deadlines. Every legacy carmaker has the same goal, and the same plan. And the most deadlines are set in stone.

When it comes specifically to BMW ... They opted for all-purpose platform for the transition period, so they can best optimize the production - being flexible to respond to demand: being that ICEVs, PHEVs or BEVs. Mind not all markets around the globe are at the same point of transition. Some are well ahead, some are well behind. So flexibility is the key here. Bigger carmakers (eg. VAG) opted for separate platforms & separate production lines, even separate plants. BMW are not in a position to be able to pull something like that. BMW AG is just too small for something like that.

So, in this transition period BMW will offer all-purpose platform and different drivetrains of same models. Therefore iX3, i4, i5, i7, iX1, i2 etc.

After that (after 2025) BEV-specific platform for high-volume models will emerge, while some non-BEV (PHEVs) versions will continue to utilize the all-purpose platform a bit longer than usually.

As you said: perhaps development of all-purpose platform is more costly & full of compromises, it allows a much more flexible (and cheaper!) production & response to the demand of different type of powertrains.

BMW have made quite some calculations, and decided it's better for the to transition to BEVs slowly - and when they go mass-volume, they can offer the latest tech. Also their ICEVs still make more money then BEVs (even with all the emission fines they are paying).

So, BMW can't afford to make mass-volume BEVs & losing money on them. That's not the option. Therefore they are slow. Also with new battery & charging tech, AI, 5G / 6G. IoT emerging coming to the market slowly is not the worst decision ever. Sure they can't compete with BEV-only manufacturers like Tesla, but they are (still) very much on par with other legacy carmakers. And don't worry ... when time is due ... when BEVs will be present in mass volume BMW & other carmakers will be ready.

What (still) worries me more is how legacy carmakers will handle the IT, digitialization ... and mostly the content & services connected to that. I'm not sure they will be able to compete with big IT giants when it comes to that. Just like Android smart phone makers can't. Mind that in future services / content will contribute at least 60% of revenues in the mobility sector. Hardware makers (= car makers) will be left with less profitable products - automobiles, while content / services provider will thrive more. It's inevitable.

That's the real threat to automotive industry. Not the electrification of drivetrains. Everyone will go BEV & offer mass-volume BEVs in the near future. But services & content ... That's the field car makers can't really compete in & offer competitive products (content, services) to the products IT giants do offer.

 

[MrRapp]

I do wonder though what this type of content will be. Is it Netflix on your screen as Tesla has shown in their revised Model S press pics? It will take longer than many think to reach full autonomy for cars and no one is even sure the customer will accept it. What is then this particular content as I don’t see it. I have voicecontrol in my car, can stream music with Apple Carplay and use the other apps, navigation works fine, app on my phone which is connected to my car etc.

 

[Sunny]

None of the competitors are there.

I know what you are getting at is probably that Mercedes and Audi are not in any better state and while that is mostly true (except Audi will get free stuff for from VAG), it is also important to point out that - It is a fallacy to think BMW will only have to compete with Mercedes and Audi in the EV field like they did with ICEV. Whatever perceived or real superiority/exclusivity the trio enjoyed when it comes to ICE will soon disappear. They will have to compete head on with everyone - Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, Ford, GM, Lucid, Rivian, Polestar and probably bunch of Chinese companies in the local markets. Any of those companies can make a fancy interior. And they are not waiting around for BMW to make dedicated BEV platforms or invest in cell manufacturing.

BMW have made quite some calculations, and decided it's better for the to transition to BEVs slowly - and when they go mass-volume

So according to BMW's "quite some calculations" when do BEVs go "mass-volume"? Is BMW 3er not a mass volume car as per these calculations?

 

[Sunny]

BMW's electric-focused architecture is for all​

The New Class platform is designed to be fully electric, but also will underpin vehicles with gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines, including plug-in hybrids.​

Luca Ciferri
BMW will introduce an electric-focused architecture in 2025 that will underpin all of its future cars and light trucks.

BMW's electric-focused architecture is for all

The New Class platform is designed to be fully electric, but also will underpin vehicles with gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines, including plug-in hybrids.

www.autonews.com

BMW will move its EVs and gas-powered cars to a common platform

BMW will move most of its range to a common platform, regardless of what each car is powered by. Called Neue Klasse, it's due out in 2025.

www.autoblog.com

So if that is accurate, "Neue Klasse", far from being dedicated BEV platform is another bastardized platform for everything from 1er to 7er to ICEV to Hybrid to BEV to, wait for it, Hydrogen FCEV!!

So much for the BMW will have dedicated BEV platform in 2025!

 

[Serpens]

I was a bit taken aback at the neue klasse announcement. Either BMW has unlocked the next stage in platform flexibility or they've become totally confident they can overcome any compromises that may result. Is this just a further development of CLAR?

 

[Matski]

Guess that answers the question of what BMW meant when they said "BEV-centric" platform.

or they've become totally confident they can overcome any compromises that may result. Is this just a further development of CLAR?

I think it points to the tipping point where instead of the compromise in favour of ICE affecting the BEV cars, the new compromise will be in the ICE cars, in order to favour the BEV cars. So, to further an earlier supposition, with 2025 being the launch of the next 3-er, on the New Klasse platform... that points to the earliest a purely dedicated platform for the 3-er as a BEV being ~2032. BMW's current goal is 50% BEV by 2030... so this probably lines up.

 

[Sunny]

BMW's current goal is 50% BEV by 2030...

That is interesting. Just a few months ago (Aug 2020), the goal was 50% all electrified vehicles (hybrids and full electrics) by 2030 - https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/glob...plug-in-hybrid-drive-systems-by-the-year-2030

And now it is indeed 50% only full electric 2030 - from Zipse's sattement last month - https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/glob...nt-of-bmw-ag-bmw-group-annual-conference-2021

Given BEVs make just ~20%* of electrified vehicles BMW sells currently, that is a monumental shift to go from a goal of 50% all electrified vehicles to 50% BEVs in just a matter of few months. Wonder what changed? Especially given the position of some in the management is there is no demand for BEVs! Or are they just are putting out press releases with numbers pulled from their ass?

From - https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/attachment/T0327938EN/474465

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Few other interesting things from Zipse's statement -
"By the end of 2025, we will have delivered a total of around two million fully-electric vehicles to customers."

So far, they have sold about ~200k fully electric (including ReX i3). So in next 5 years, they have to sell 1.8M. Currently they sell ~50k. Even if they grow BEV sales by 50% every year, they will hardly hit ~1 million. To hit 2 million, they have to almost double the BEV sales every year. Very ambitious for a company that till recently said there is no demand for BEVs!

Zipse also says they plan to double BEV sales this year - I am curious how, given i4 and ix won't go on sale till end of year or even next year? That just leaves i3, ix3 and Mini SE to do the honors.

 

[Matski]

So far, they have sold about ~200k fully electric (including ReX i3). So in next 5 years, they have to sell 1.8M. Currently they sell ~50k. Even if they grow BEV sales by 50% every year, they will hardly hit ~1 million. To hit 2 million, they have to almost double the BEV sales every year. Very ambitious for a company that till recently said there is no demand for BEVs!

Zipse also says they plan to double BEV sales this year - I am curious how, given i4 and ix won't go on sale till end of year or even next year? That just leaves i3, ix3 and Mini SE to do the honors.

Taking the headline claims from last months investor presentation:
1/ 50% of group sales being BEV in 2030
2/ 2M BEV's total by end 2025
3/ 10M total BEV deliveries by end 2031
4/ Average ~50% BEV increase each year to 2025
5/ Average ~20% BEV increase each year 2025-2030

The way I see it, volumes need to breakdown as follows to get close to those claims...

Year	Annual Group BEV Sales
2021	130,860 (i01 i3, Mini SE, iX3... iX & i4 pre-orders?)
2022	196,300 (i01 i3, Mini SE, i20 iX, i4, G28 i3, i7, iX1)
2023	294,450
2024	441,680 (i5 ?)
2025	662,520
2026	795,020 ("New Class" 3 Series & X3 ?)
2027	954,030 ("New Class" 4 Series ?)
2028	1,144,830
2029	1,373,800 (iX finishes, iX5 introduction - at the latest?)
2030	1,648,560
2031	1,692,250

 

[Sunny]

1/ 50% of group sales being BEV in 2030
2/ 2M BEV's total by end 2025
3/ 10M total BEV deliveries by end 2031
4/ Average ~50% BEV increase each year to 2025
5/ Average ~20% BEV increase each year 2025-2030

My math says #4 won't get them to #2.
2020 was 45k BEVs. Compounded @ 50%, you get:
21 ~68
22 ~101
23 ~152
24 ~228
25 ~342
Total from 21- 25 ~890k
+ ~210k EVs sold so far (165k i3 sold through 2019 per Google + 45k BEVs sold last year per BMW)
Grand total of ~1.1 Million by end of 2025, far short of 2 Million goal.

They need about ~80% BEV growth every year from now to 25 to come close to the goal of 2 Mill.

2021	130,860 (i01 i3, Mini SE, iX3... iX & i4 pre-orders?)

What is i01?

And I very much doubt you can include pre-orders in official sales numbers (at least in US). BMW even got fined last year by SEC for counting non-delivered, but sold cars in it's reporting. So counting pre-orders sounds highly doubtful.

 

[Matski]

They need about ~80% BEV growth every year from now to 25 to come close to the goal of 2 Mill.

From 2020 perhaps, I worked back from the 2030 target to see what they'd need to do this year.

+ ~210k EVs sold so far (165k i3 sold through 2019 per Google + 45k BEVs sold last year per BMW)
Grand total of ~1.1 Million by end of 2025, far short of 2 Million goal.

I'm going to suggest they're including all i3 (including REx), which as per Leipzig "three million BMW's made" press release, is 211,743. Add to that 17,580 Mini SE and 857 iX3, gives 230,180.

As another way they could manipulate the numbers, they could also include Motorrad sales, which will no doubt include some electric bikes.

... and there's always the Zinoro 1E.

What is i01?

i01 is the i3, as opposed to the forthcoming LWB electric 3-Series, launched in China as a G28 i3.

And I very much doubt you can include pre-orders in official sales numbers (at least in US). BMW even got fined last year by SEC for counting non-delivered, but sold cars in it's reporting. So counting pre-orders sounds highly doubtful.

At this point I don't think there's any risk in forecasting based on pre-orders, they're saying 'sales' not units produced, delivered, or registered... obviously how they report them official after the fact, will be more relevant.