Yeah, you're going to update from Lithium to solid state through the air, am I right?
Ignoring the OTA bit
, how many current electric cars can be upgraded to solid-state? Can systems built for Li-ion batteries integrate with batteries? And when are we going to see solid-state battery production ramp up to the point where it'll be the dominant energy storage for the EV market?
I am sure our resident engineers on GCF can answer the first two questions. But with the last question, last I remember (and I don't remember well) was Toyota and their partner (either Panasonic or a Chinese battery company) was on track with bringing it into the market in the mid-2020s, but I think they were having issues either with it's ability to discharge or the how many charge cycles it'd retain. We'll see SS batteries, but I'd bet it's closer to the end of the decade. And if we are talking about a meaningful number of SS batteries to bring about significant change to EV market, then likely in the beginning of 2030s.
Regarding, BEVs and other ZEVs, we are still in the infancy stage. Like ICEs in the beginning, we really didn't start seeing marked efficiencies until the last 30 or 40 years. And what spurred along those efficiencies were things like tighter air regulations, a gas shortage that brought to attention smaller, more efficient powertrains, computers having an ever increasing role in managing systems within a car, etc. With BEVs, we are still trying to further maximize so many of these parameters: power, range, capacity.
I think with so much more resources at hand, the trajectory in increasing those areas' potential will be steeper than it was ICEVs. I do wonder when we'll see a plateau because if you're constantly plying money into R&D and often retooling to keep up with the most modern batteries and systems in order to stay competitive, I wonder how companies will be able continuously produce a profit.
