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COVID-19 COVID19 Theories

COVID-19 news, discussion, developments, public health updates, and community conversation.
When they talk about virus isolation with respec...

I'm by no means an expert but the pcr testing is inadequate because it simply captures genetic material,what are they comparing that to,since there's never been a a gold standard to compare it with initially? Dr. Andrew Kaufman gives his insight here.

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I'm by no means an expert but the pcr testing is inadequate because it simply captures genetic material,what are they comparing that to,since there's never been a a gold standard to compare it with initially? Dr. Andrew Kaufman gives his insight here.

Regarding Koch's postulate, whether it's the 1937 Rivers-modified or the original from 1890, the postulate is borderline useless today. These days we have high-throughput DNA and RNA sequencing, PCR, ELISA, protein sequencing, electron microscopies and other more highly precise tools. There has been an ever increasing list of organisms or viruses that have become the exception to Koch's postulate when determining disease causality.

When the Nature article was published in 2003 regarding SARS-CoV-1 (SARS) meeting the Rivers-modified criteria, sure, it was great that it met those criteria and it was possibly helpful in determining the virus' etiology. But at that time, high-throughput DNA/RNA sequencing had not taken off commercially until the mid to late 2000's. Now determining whether it meets Koch's postulate or it doesn't, it adds little value in determining casuality today. Despite Kaufman's focus on psychiatry for at least the last decade and half and not on molecular biology or microbiology, I'd expect more from him. Either he's just ignorant or he's willfully ignorant.

Kaufman also brings up the possibility of exosomes being the causal agent in the slides. Admittedly, I had to look whether exosomes can confer an immune response even though it's endogenously made, and yes, it's possible. However, what was found in the isolated particle is a surface S (spike) protein very structurally similar to those found on the surface of those viruses found belonging to the coronavirus family. One can suggest that's a coincidence, but I am sure has conclusively determine that's an S protein from a coronavirus through mass spectrometry and proteomic sequencing. So there are now two possibilities, either a) it's a coronavirus, or b) a coronavirus infected that cell, incorporated it's genetic payload to that cell's genome, synthesized the S protein, and part of that cell was shed off as vesicle that forms an exosome that has the S protein on it. Both would confer an immune response and eventual antibody production by the B cell. But it's unlikely the latter is the causal agent because the latter will not cause the pathogenic cellular destruction like we've seen on chest X-rays and renal glomerular biopsies. In either scenarios, that person is infected with coronavirus and either is affected or is an asymptomatic carrier.

Now regarding having the original viral samples from the Hubei province, I agree it'd be advantageous to have that rather than just the genetic sequence. Geopolitical and finger-pointing aside, this would be helpful in understanding the origin of the virus by tracing how a zoonotic virus jumped from animal to human. I've not been following that front as much, but last I heard it was either a bat, civet, or pangolin. Have there been any additional culprit or conclusion? Last I heard, the virus found in pangolins had about 99% commonality to the virus in Western U.S. Frankly, while I don't think it's been "bioengineered," with some additional reporting in the last 2 months, I can no longer rule out whether the virus "escaped" from the lab in Wuhan. That is very much a possibility, IMO. Either way, a wholesome, unbiased investigation ought to have taken place, but I doubt the CCP would allow that even before international relations turned to their current icy state.

TL;DR:
1) Koch postulate is not the gold standard method in determining disease causality today because of more precise tools in helping confirm or strongly determine causality. Frankly, someone that should know better who thinks that being a major factor has me questioning whether they are truly being inquisitive in good faith or have some sort of agenda to push.
2) The exosome theory doesn't sound solid to me. Exosomes would not lead to the pathogenecity that has been documented.
3) And it'd be nice to have the original sequence from the first 25-50 patients in the Hubei province, or better yet, from patient zero. We don't because either it was incidentally or willfully, depending on one's level of skepticism, destroyed, so we work with what we have, and what we have are isolated viral genomes from patients that have 99% genetic biosimilarity to coronaviruses found in pangolins.
 
Regarding Koch's postulate, whether it's the 193...

Looking at the studies it's drawing a bunch of different genetic material from lung fluid. That fluid is neither filtered nor is a virus isolated and purified. They are comparing impure samples of genetic material and in turn alleging that they've identified an RNA sequence of a coronavirus,but since this is an impure sample with multiple sources of RNA,they will never be able to determine it's origin.

So the virus has yet to be isolated and purified,merely genetic material identified and sequences compared. Which was my initial point. Comparing sequences of impure samples is weak science. How do we know that RNA isn't already commonly present in our own cells,it could explain why so many asymptomatic people have tested positive for the virus. Or speaks to the inadequacies of PCR testing overall,even Kary B. Mullis argued against his own invention. Either way,I continue to question the legitimacy of this scamdemic.
 
Looking at the studies it's drawing a bunch of different genetic material from lung fluid. That fluid is neither filtered nor is a virus isolated and purified. They are comparing impure samples of genetic material and in turn alleging that they've identified an RNA sequence of a coronavirus,but since this is an impure sample with multiple sources of RNA,they will never be able to determine it's origin.

So the virus has yet to be isolated and purified,merely genetic material identified and sequences compared. Which was my initial point. Comparing sequences of impure samples is weak science. How do we know that RNA isn't already commonly present in our own cells,it could explain why so many asymptomatic people have tested positive for the virus. Or speaks to the inadequacies of PCR testing overall,even Kary B. Mullis argued against his own invention. Either way,I continue to question the legitimacy of this scamdemic.


Firstly, the virus has been isolated in at least the 3 papers I have posted. In order to do those studies, you'd have to isolate and purify samples from the bronchial lavage or any type of bodily fluid, be it urine, blood, etc.

Again, there's very little research value to add by proving Koch's postulate when more microbes are being added to the list of exception so there's not much value added in publishing a paper trying to prove or disprove Koch's postulate, Rivers-modified or not, in the 21st century. It's just an argument made in bad faith. While I don't have any reason to doubt that Dr. Kaufman's a bright guy, I am not going to rely on somebody who has trained, researched, and/or practiced as a forensic psychiatrist for their take on infectious disease or molecular biology. His take is just noise in the ether.

Secondly, because when you compare that viral RNA sequence to other coronavirus RNA sequence, you reach anywhere from 80 to 99% similarity. It's unlikely you're going to reach that level of sequence similarity to host (human) cell RNA.

Regarding Mullis arguing the inadequcies of PCR testing, when did he make that argument? And why hasn't the medical field yielded to his arguments for using PCR in detecting other viruses?
 
Firstly, the virus has been isolated in at least...

The virus has never been isolated and purified,period. They found the genetic sequence to be an 80% match,there are huge problems with that,which I already highlighted in my previous post. Go look at Mulli's old interviews for that answer.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 7,623,904 Cases and 424,362 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


Out of 8 billion people! You stated 6-7% do you know how catastrophic that would be?! the CDC has it at .004 currently up from .003 probably due to lag,those under 64 face no threat essentially.

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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
 
Out of 8 billion people! You stated 6-7% do you know how catastrophic that would be?! the CDC has it at .004 currently up from .003 probably due to lag,those under 64 face no threat essentially.
That isn't how mortality rate is measured. Mortality rate is the % of infected people who die. Including the entire global population is misleading, it's like saying the mortality rate of 20 black mamba bites is only 0.000001% because not many people have actually been bitten.
 
New study out of Switzerland demonstrating a 0.005% mortality rate for those under 50.

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New study out of Switzerland demonstrating a 0.005% mortality rate for those under 50.

The study covers half a million people in the Geneva area... in the UK we see regional variation of 400% or more, and 60% difference in areas within the same city.

I don't disagree with the conclusion that it's less dangerous in younger people... this is the situation in my country...

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.. but often I see such studies used to downplay the impact of the virus, which I think is a little misleading given the bigger the picture, and the highly regional specific nature of the study in that tweet.

And, this is the bigger picture.

upload_2020-6-14_15-42-52.webp


.. unchecked, Covid-19 killed nearly as many people as everything else.

It poses an interesting moral and ethical dilemma... the >50yo highlighted on our age demography are already on their way out... so should we care if they are significantly at risk, compared to the biggest tanking of the economy since records began?

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Viral Logan's Run for the win? What studies like the Geneva one show, is that in a world without lockdown or a vaccine, Covid-19 has reduced everyone's life expectancy.
 
The benefits of lockdown are unproven.

No, the effectiveness of various governments interpretation of the concept of lockdown are somewhat unproven, but the concept itself is sound. If you think that the reported deaths would have naturally taken the same down turn as they have, without lockdown, then I believe you are being incredibly naive.

The harms are very, very real.

.. and this is why I say it's an ethical and moral dilemma. Since the start of this I've not begrudged anyone that's said they prefer money over life... because that is the world we live in. What I cannot abide one single bit, is people that pretend the risk to life is less than it is, in order to avoid justifying their Gekko-ist standpoint straight on. Economy over life is valid*, if that's your standpoint on this, own it... don't make out that people aren't dying.

* I mean, it shouldn't be, but either you or your government has to pay for it, and if neither does, you're probably dead.
 
No, the effectiveness of various governments interpretation of the concept of lockdown are somewhat unproven, but the concept itself is sound.

OH WORD????? I'm not being naive,I'm just not subscribing to the bullshit. How about those who died because of the lockdown,why do you disregard them? Has your lively hood been flushed down the toilet,probably not considering your response.

Dierenbach: The coronavirus response has been deadly

As far as for the "sound concept" of lockdown. How do you explain Belarus,Sweden,Japan even?
 
I'm not being naive,I'm just not subscribing to the bullshit.

So, do you think we'd have seen the same downturn in deaths without any lockdown or social distancing measures? Yes or no?

How about those who died because of the lockdown,why do you disregard them?

I don't disregard them. My mother has had several mini-strokes during lockdown, suffered temporary paralysis, and most likely has something amiss in her skull, but she can't get an appointment for an MRI because hospitals are over capacity. My best friend has a stage four brain tumour and is currently 6 months beyond his expected date of death, but his treatment has stopped because of capacity. Should I blame those staying at home for this? Or, should I blame those being inconsiderate of others, those who are asymptomatic spreading the disease because they think it only affects 0.005% of the population?

Has your lively hood been flushed down the toilet,probably not considering your response.

You have ZERO idea what the toll on me has been to keep the jobs of my employees open during the pandemic, you don't know the conversations I've had with the healthcare companies I already supply, and you don't know what has been given to try and save the lives of those who might use what we make, so you can stop this line of thought dead.


The gold standard for medical research...


Didn't their number of cases just triple? Didn't they have the highest number of deaths per capita for part of May? Haven't they demonstrated that herd immunity is much lower than originally thought? yeah, good job on that Sweden...

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Japan even

Japan is bigger converstation, but, in short, if you take the cultural norms of somewhere like Italy, that got hit hard, and those of somewhere like Japan, it's not hard to see why those in Japan might have been hit less hard.

Also.. I assume you believe the decline following each peak in the above image is coincidence? I assume you think that the steep upward curve in cases for EVERY nation would simply have peaked and fallen back down all on its own, rather than continuing to climb until the at risk 50+ demographic was virtually wiped out?

As I've said, if you believe the economy is more important than lives, just say, I've got no real problem with that.
 
So, do you think we'd have seen the same downturn in deaths without any lockdown or social distancing measures? Yes or no?

There is no data supporting that lockdowns has any effects in preventing deaths. Outside of elderly those in nursing homes,and those who face comorbidities,the risk are virtually nil. So,emphatically NO!

I don't disregard them. My mother has had several mini-strokes during lockdown, suffered temporary paralysis, and most likely has something amiss in her skull, but she can't get an appointment for an MRI because hospitals are over capacity. My best friend has a stage four brain tumour and is currently 6 months beyond his expected date of death, but his treatment has stopped because of capacity. Should I blame those staying at home for this? Or, should I blame those being inconsiderate of others, those who are asymptomatic spreading the disease because they think it only affects 0.005% of the population?

...But you do,when you say people value economy over lives. That's a near sided response,nothing short of sanctimonious drivel. 30k + deaths have been estimated here in America due to this lockdown. I am sorry about your mom and friend,I hope the best for them. Those instances are exactly what I am referring to. The answers are far too nuanced and the deleterious effects of these lockdowns are massive! Economy over money is a bullshit response.


Didn't their number of cases just triple? Didn't they have the highest number of deaths per capita for part of May? Haven't they demonstrated that herd immunity is much lower than originally thought? yeah, good job on that Sweden...

90% of Sweden's death were 70+ in age,a large amount from inside nursing homes. No,great f#cking Job Sweden!

Japan is bigger converstation, but, in short, if you take the cultural norms of somewhere like Italy, that got hit hard, and those of somewhere like Japan, it's not hard to see why those in Japan might have been hit less hard.

Also.. I assume you believe the decline following each peak in the above image is coincidence? I assume you think that the steep upward curve in cases for EVERY nation would simply have peaked and fallen back down all on its own, rather than continuing to climb until the at risk 50+ demographic was virtually wiped out?

As I've said, if you believe the economy is more important than lives, just say, I've got no real problem with that.

My state has been opened for weeks now,and all the others that have,have also fared exceptionally well, the data supports this and shows lockdowns are were completely unnecessary.

As for Italy 96.3% of deaths faced other comorbidities.

I believe in the truth,and in the freedom that individuals be allowed to asses the risk faced in life with out government overreach and fear porn dictating what they can or cannot do. There is far more at risk than just the economy,for Christ sake.
 
The benefits of lockdown are unproven. The harms are ve...
The idea of the lockdown is to keep the number of infected within the capacity of the intensive stations. The moment this capacity is surpassed, the mortality rate increase significantly and not only within older people. But this could hardly happen in Switzerland.
 
The idea of the lockdown is to keep the number...

I'm not following what your saying exactly,sorry. The lockdowns were initially implemented to flattened the curve as to not overwhelm medical facilities. That never transpired,the narrative at least here in the states quickly turned into "stay home and save lives". There is no real verifiable data suggesting such measures were or are effective. The deleterious effects of such measures are however,numerous.
 

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