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If/when do you think BEVs will be 50% of annual new car sales in China, the US and EU?


  • Total voters
    114
BEVs are great, the best of them are really enjoyable to drive. They're far better suited to metropolitan commuting and they're likely better for the planet - for now. But call me when a BEV can get me from Joburg to Cape Town with just one 15 minute stop. Or better still, call me when Tesla or Ionity puts a charging station in the Okavango. Still a long way to go for BEVs to fulfill the broad ambit of diesel.

Im confident it will happen this decade. The last 10 years are a pretty good indication of what to expect in the next 10

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This is very harmful for the battery. By charging only like this it will last 60-70 k miles only.
That makes BEVs inconvenient if you have to think so much about. The same was the case with ICEVs, all technology was made to make their operation as easy as possible. Otherwise we would still manually crank up the engine, have a manual choke valve, carburetors, manual transmission without synchronizator, etc.


So no, BEVs must be used with primary focus on convenience, at the expense of cost (new battery every 10 years).
 
That makes BEVs inconvenient if you have to think so much about. The same was the case with ICEVs, all technology was made to make their operation as easy as possible. Otherwise we would still manually crank up the engine, have a manual choke valve, carburetors, manual transmission without synchronizator, etc.


So no, BEVs must be used with primary focus on convenience, at the expense of cost (new battery every 10 years).
If it is 10 years is ok, but with wrong exploatation it could be every 4-5 years and considering the price of the battery as a spare part, one better buy a new car.
 
PHEVs are seen as "lugging an ICE around that you don't use on short journeys", but with a BEV you're lugging around heavy batteries also, most of which you don't need on short journeys.
I think we had the discussion before, so at the risk of maybe repeating myself - it is not really the same though - a bigger battery doesn't take up useful space (at least not in a well engineered BEV). And actually affords advantages like faster charging and more power than a smaller battery even when you don't use the capacity. And ofcourse no additional maintenance and much simpler and less things to fail than a PHEV. And everything else being equal also safer.
 
I think we had the discussion before, so at the risk of maybe repeating myself - it is not really the same though - a bigger battery doesn't take up useful space (at least not in a well engineered BEV). And actually affords advantages like faster charging and more power than a smaller battery even when you don't use the capacity. And ofcourse no additional maintenance and much simpler and less things to fail than a PHEV. And everything else being equal also safer.

Maybe we did discuss this before. Can't remember. On the points you've made:

1) Space - That's true. The downside of a PHEV is lack of space in the boot (trunk to you :D ). The 330e Sedan is useless if you need to take even an average amount of baggage or pushchairs with you. That's why I waited until the 330e Touring, which is just about acceptable.

2) Faster charging - This is true but fast charging is not something a PHEV needs. My 330e Touring only charges at 3.7 kW, which is enough for a 12 kWh battery (gross). I can get a range of around 55-60km on one charge, and then I recharge the battery overnight. The faster charging on a BEV is a necessity otherwise it would take too long to charge a large battery. In effect, a PHEV has a super-quick charging ability...it's called "filling the tank with petrol". :p

3) No additional maintenance - Good point, but as a lease car or a new car, maintenance doesn't really feature on my list of priorities.

4) Less things to fail - Again, good point, and I believe you, but I can't tell you when an ICE has ever broken down on me, so these things don't factor in any buying decisions.

5) Safer - I'll take your word for it, but again, it's not something that is statistically significant enough for me to factor it in a purchasing decision.


I'm not dismissing your points, and they may be valid for some people. I'm just saying for me, a PHEV fits my personal needs perfectly. I do love driving the 330e on battery power, and I can see me switching to a BEV when the time is right.
 
TAIPEI, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Taiwan tech giant Foxconn (2317.TW) unveiled its first three electric vehicle prototypes on Monday, underscoring ambitious plans to diversify away from its role of building consumer electronics for Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and other tech firms.

The vehicles - an SUV, a sedan and a bus - were made by Foxtron, a joint venture between Foxconn and Taiwanese car maker Yulon Motor Co Ltd (2201.TW).

Foxtron Vice Chairman Tso Chi-sen told reporters that electric vehicles would be worth a trillion Taiwan dollars to Foxconn in five years time - a figure equivalent to around $35 billion.

Taiwan's Foxconn shows off three electric vehicle prototypes


CVGS5EZCIBLZ5BSZNDY3KOVGIQ.webp

A Foxtron Model C electric vehicle (EV) is seen unveiled at a Foxconn event in Taipei, Taiwan October 18, 2021. REUTERS/Fabian Hamacher


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A Foxtron Model E electric vehicle (EV) is seen unveiled at a Foxconn event in Taipei, Taiwan October 18, 2021. REUTERS/Fabian Hamacher
 
October 19, 2021 04:08 AM
Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi plans to start mass producing EVs in 2024
The company will invest $10B in output


"In March, Xiaomi said it would commit to investing $10 billion in a new EV division over the next ten years. The company completed the business registration of its new unit in late August.
The company has ramped up hiring for the unit, though it has yet to reveal if it will produce the car independently or via a partnership with an existing automaker."



As I saw recently in a Spanish video about EVs where they said:
"It takes a lot of work and several top engineers to make an M3 (E92) engine, but any idiot can make an electric car"
 
As I saw recently in a Spanish video about EVs where they said:
"It takes a lot of work and several top engineers to make an M3 (E92) engine, but any idiot can make an electric car"

But does that matter in the end? No, it doesn't.
 
Well that just has to be one of the most ill-thought out and meaningless opinions I've read this year.

Why? You see BEV car companies popping up everywhere. They're relatively easy to make. Pop up ICE companies would never ever happen.

It is meaningless however, because the consumer in the end doesn't care how easy it is to make a car. They care about how good/cheap a car is, and BEV is superior to ICE.
 
Electric cars are crap and the customers know that. So the only way to make them somewhat economically viable is by robbing the f#ck out of Peter to subsidize Paul.
 
Electric cars are crap and the customers know that. So the only way to make them somewhat economically viable is by robbing the f#ck out of Peter to subsidize Paul.
Care to explain this?
 
But does that matter in the end? No, it doesn't.

Well that just has to be one of the most ill-thought out and meaningless opinions I've read this year.
Maybe I need to contextualize
The video I mention is from 2014/15 where I think we all resisted the idea of EVs
It expresses a "reality" but in a derogatory way since I do not see any car brand wanting to make cell phones or vacuum cleaners but on the contrary, before with ICEs they could not even think about doing it.

As it is happening has good and bad points the "democratization" generated by the apps, say facebook with the "news", Uber with the taxis, the Ai with for example the automatic design web pages that are leaving professional designers wondering what do ..... and so many other examples
Good things and bad things, time will tell which for companies and consumers
 
As I saw recently in a Spanish video about EVs where they said:
"It takes a lot of work and several top engineers to make an M3 (E92) engine, but any idiot can make an electric car"

This is the same self-destructive tunnel vision that CEO’s from Legacy companies have been operating with and why most of them will go bankrupt.

Apple, the worlds most valuable and profitable company (with $200 Billion in cash reserves) still relies on Foxconn to build their hardware. Why doesnt the wealthiest company in the world manufacture its own hardware in Cupertino if its so easy to build hardware?

Think about the Smartphone landscape from just 12 years ago. The biggest incumbents Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, HTC are literally non existent in this space - completely been displaced by Chinese manufacturers. The same Chinese manufacturers that everyone scoffed at in the late 2000s. The exact same thing has been happening in the EV space over the last 5 years And the Chinese are just about to pull The rug from underneath the feet of Legacy carmakers.


Ponder on this for just a moment:

VW has a joint venture with JAC Automotive
Ford
has a joint venture with Changan Automotive
Mercedes Benz
has a 49% / 51% joint venture BAIC Motor
BMW
has a joint venture with BBA (Brilliance Automotive)


What do all these joint ventures have in common with one another?

B8AE9657-424F-4E33-BF0D-2FBAA6AC4B5C.jpeg


Yup, same owner (Chinese government). All the legacy carmakers have given up decades of intellectual property in favour of profits to get access to the juicy Chinese car market. What does BBA manufacture for BMW? The all electric iX3 (which is only manufactured in China)




BC009568-ED59-4420-806B-B78C2D124475.jpeg


A quote from Foxconn CEO Terry Gou in 2014:
“If we can make iPhones, why can’t we make electric vehicles? It is an iPhone with four wheels,”


What happens next? China pulls the wraps off several Foxconn style manufacturers who will make better looking cars than the Mercedes EQS and the BMW iX at half the price. World domination ensues just like the smartphone market.


“Check-Mate“
 
This is the same self-destructive tunnel vision that CEO’s from Legacy companies have been operating with and why most of them will go bankrupt.

Apple, the worlds most valuable and profitable company (with $200 Billion in cash reserves) still relies on Foxconn to build their hardware. Why doesnt the wealthiest company in the world manufacture its own hardware in Cupertino if its so easy to build hardware?

Think about the Smartphone landscape from just 12 years ago. The biggest incumbents Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, HTC are literally non existent in this space - completely been displaced by Chinese manufacturers. The same Chinese manufacturers that everyone scoffed at in the late 2000s. The exact same thing has been happening in the EV space over the last 5 years And the Chinese are just about to pull The rug from underneath the feet of Legacy carmakers.


Ponder on this for just a moment:

VW has a joint venture with JAC Automotive
Ford
has a joint venture with Changan Automotive
Mercedes Benz
has a 49% / 51% joint venture BAIC Motor
BMW
has a joint venture with BBA (Brilliance Automotive)


What do all these joint ventures have in common with one another?

B8AE9657-424F-4E33-BF0D-2FBAA6AC4B5C.jpeg


Yup, same owner (Chinese government). All the legacy carmakers have given up decades of intellectual property in favour of profits to get access to the juicy Chinese car market. What does BBA manufacture for BMW? The all electric iX3 (which is only manufactured in China)




BC009568-ED59-4420-806B-B78C2D124475.jpeg


A quote from Foxconn CEO Terry Gou in 2014:
“If we can make iPhones, why can’t we make electric vehicles? It is an iPhone with four wheels,”


What happens next? China pulls the wraps off several Foxconn style manufacturers who will make better looking cars than the Mercedes EQS and the BMW iX at half the price. World domination ensues just like the smartphone market.


“Check-Mate“
Very informative and relevant, but not "Check-Mate" yet.
I am one of the first to say it, speaking of ICEs they already have 50% of the market I am in.
Therefore it is a possibility, but what you are implying has not happened yet.
That CEO can say what he want, but Dyson thought cars are "a vacuum cleaner on wheels" and .......

Apple continues where it always has, and so will most of the legacy carmakers, especially the premium ones.
 
This is the same self-destructive tunnel vision that CEO’s from Legacy companies have been operating with and why most of them will go bankrupt.

Apple, the worlds most valuable and profitable company (with $200 Billion in cash reserves) still relies on Foxconn to build their hardware. Why doesnt the wealthiest company in the world manufacture its own hardware in Cupertino if its so easy to build hardware?

Think about the Smartphone landscape from just 12 years ago. The biggest incumbents Blackberry, Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, HTC are literally non existent in this space - completely been displaced by Chinese manufacturers. The same Chinese manufacturers that everyone scoffed at in the late 2000s. The exact same thing has been happening in the EV space over the last 5 years And the Chinese are just about to pull The rug from underneath the feet of Legacy carmakers.


Ponder on this for just a moment:

VW has a joint venture with JAC Automotive
Ford
has a joint venture with Changan Automotive
Mercedes Benz
has a 49% / 51% joint venture BAIC Motor
BMW
has a joint venture with BBA (Brilliance Automotive)


What do all these joint ventures have in common with one another?

B8AE9657-424F-4E33-BF0D-2FBAA6AC4B5C.jpeg


Yup, same owner (Chinese government). All the legacy carmakers have given up decades of intellectual property in favour of profits to get access to the juicy Chinese car market. What does BBA manufacture for BMW? The all electric iX3 (which is only manufactured in China)




BC009568-ED59-4420-806B-B78C2D124475.jpeg


A quote from Foxconn CEO Terry Gou in 2014:
“If we can make iPhones, why can’t we make electric vehicles? It is an iPhone with four wheels,”


What happens next? China pulls the wraps off several Foxconn style manufacturers who will make better looking cars than the Mercedes EQS and the BMW iX at half the price. World domination ensues just like the smartphone market.


“Check-Mate“
I see China as an enormous risk for Tesla. They invested a lot there but I expect a huge bang there. Each Tesla is filming 24/7 all the surroundings with its cameras. What you can not see from the satellites you can see it through the hundreds of thousands of Teslas. And China has a lot of top secret objects. Sooner or later they will realize that the Teslas are dangerous for their national security. And then it will become intetesting.
 
Think about the Smartphone landscape from just 12 years ago.

Aaah yes....here we go again. F'ing LOL

I see China as an enormous risk for Tesla. They invested a lot there but I expect a huge bang there. Each Tesla is filming 24/7 all the surroundings with its cameras. What you can not see from the satellites you can see it through the hundreds of thousands of Teslas. And China has a lot of top secret objects. Sooner or later they will realize that the Teslas are dangerous for their national security. And then it will become intetesting.

You realise every single person in China has a camera on their phone right? This is not North Korea where you can only go out with a guide. Everything a Tesla sees a person without a Tesla can see too.
 

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