The Unspoken Collapse


Germany, March, -17%!

The German consumer knows that a lot of this recovery talk and Germany being able to carry the whole of Europe is clap-trap.

But guess who recorded a large increase in new car regs. in March in Germany? Land Rover of course. Nothing to do with their infamous policy of pre-registering around 40% of all their 'sales', and stuffing the new Range Rover into dealerships, whether there's demand there or not, of course not!
 
Subprime lending all over again.

As long as the state facilitates and encourages the unsustainable loaning of money to high-risk lenders as a means to stimulating the economy then the economy itself is headed once more into shit street.
Weren't lessons learnt? Nope. Consumer penchant for spending more than rightfully entitled to continues unabated; facilitated, aided and abetted by government and investor co-operation.

What does this do for the automotive industry? Nothing. It simply drives - perpetuates further even - the wrong behaviour from car makers, sellers and buyers. Where's the austerity? Where's the financial responsibility? It's visible in small quarters only and even then it's few and far between. The sales manager at the Volvo dealership looked thoroughly perplexed when my wife refused to spend X on a new V40 CC even though X was just over half of her travel allowance. Hmph, the guy just saw dollar signs and wanted to get on with doing a deal at full value instead of paying attention to the customer's most important criteria - affordability of ownership. The solution proffered: payment period extension plus residual. Wrong solution. Right solution: offer a vehicle that suits the affordability criteria of the customer.

What ever happened to people saving up to put a 50% down payment on a car, let alone buying one (that they were able to afford) for cash? Sure, there'll always be wealthy people in this world but when society as a whole condones that luxury vehicles can merely be "rented" - for a considerable monthly outlay - and then just handed back (often with a residual still owing on the car) after the contract term then the automotive industry is on a slow and steady hiding to nowhere.

Austerity and responsibility demands a shift in the thinking around personal mobility for lower-to-middle income groups. Where are the genuinely affordable and sustainable moves toward vehicles that are recognisably simpler, safer, more efficient, more rugged, more reliable and - most importantly - more affordable? And I'm not talking about something like BMW's i program - an initiative that clearly places more of an emphasis on expensive technology than on affordability. No, BMW i isn't the future for the masses. This planet needs a shift in the collective mindset and attitude toward personal mobility. Someone's gotta make it cool again to own a cheap, simple, functional, feel-good, environmentally responsible vehicle. The world doesn't need the sentimental vomit of New Beetle iteration II - it's clamouring for a people's car that's realised in the same spirit of the original.

Sure, there's a plethora of small, useful and relatively affordable vehicles out there but none of them amount to the phenomenon that this world truly needs and I fear we'll not see something truly charming, desirable, usable yet affordable for some time to come. Not while governments and bankers make it possible for unexceptional citizens to attain a luxury vehicle in a manner not commensurate with one's true financial position in life.
 
Subprime lending all over again.

As long as the state facilitates and encourages the unsustainable loaning of money to high-risk lenders as a means to stimulating the economy then the economy itself is headed once more into shit street.
Weren't lessons learnt? Nope. Consumer penchant for spending more than rightfully entitled to continues unabated; facilitated, aided and abetted by government and investor co-operation.

What does this do for the automotive industry? Nothing. It simply drives - perpetuates further even - the wrong behaviour from car makers, sellers and buyers. Where's the austerity? Where's the financial responsibility? It's visible in small quarters only and even then it's few and far between. The sales manager at the Volvo dealership looked thoroughly perplexed when my wife refused to spend X on a new V40 CC even though X was just over half of her travel allowance. Hmph, the guy just saw dollar signs and wanted to get on with doing a deal at full value instead of paying attention to the customer's most important criteria - affordability of ownership. The solution proffered: payment period extension plus residual. Wrong solution. Right solution: offer a vehicle that suits the affordability criteria of the customer.

What ever happened to people saving up to put a 50% down payment on a car, let alone buying one (that they were able to afford) for cash? Sure, there'll always be wealthy people in this world but when society as a whole condones that luxury vehicles can merely be "rented" - for a considerable monthly outlay - and then just handed back (often with a residual still owing on the car) after the contract term then the automotive industry is on a slow and steady hiding to nowhere.

Austerity and responsibility demands a shift in the thinking around personal mobility for lower-to-middle income groups. Where are the genuinely affordable and sustainable moves toward vehicles that are recognisably simpler, safer, more efficient, more rugged, more reliable and - most importantly - more affordable? And I'm not talking about something like BMW's i program - an initiative that clearly places more of an emphasis on expensive technology than on affordability. No, BMW i isn't the future for the masses. This planet needs a shift in the collective mindset and attitude toward personal mobility. Someone's gotta make it cool again to own a cheap, simple, functional, feel-good, environmentally responsible vehicle. The world doesn't need the sentimental vomit of New Beetle iteration II - it's clamouring for a people's car that's realised in the same spirit of the original.

Sure, there's a plethora of small, useful and relatively affordable vehicles out there but none of them amount to the phenomenon that this world truly needs and I fear we'll not see something truly charming, desirable, usable yet affordable for some time to come. Not while governments and bankers make it possible for unexceptional citizens to attain a luxury vehicle in a manner not commensurate with one's true financial position in life.

I believe people lack education and common sense.

In the example you stated, (btw, are you thinking of buying a V40 CC?), it's the Volvo dealership's "job" to sell you a V40, no matter if you can afford it, or not. Since you are getting a loan from some 3rd party, the dealership's money is guaranteed and the "problem" of financing the loan is yours.

On the other hand, the consumer needs to be able to understand some numbers, to be able to know what he can afford to buy and what he can afford to finance. A little bit or risk calculations are also needed. Else, if you can't predict the future, you don't borrow money you can't return. One doesn't need to have a PhD in rocket science to understand this, just basic education and a functional common sense.

We have a free market, so the state can't stop the consumer from borrowing money. There are ways, though, to apply the breaks to the "institutions" that sell money, since they are a vital part of the system.
 
And this will sound all to familiar @martinbo 60 Moths / 40% residual (or guaranteed buy-back:D)
South-Africa's finest deal:rolleyes:

Btw. the misses interested in a Volvo? Overdue, time for a get together I will must have a chat with your spouse about the Volvo thingy:):D
 
I believe people lack education and common sense.

In the example you stated, (btw, are you thinking of buying a V40 CC?), it's the Volvo dealership's "job" to sell you a V40, no matter if you can afford it, or not. Since you are getting a loan from some 3rd party, the dealership's money is guaranteed and the "problem" of financing the loan is yours.

On the other hand, the consumer needs to be able to understand some numbers, to be able to know what he can afford to buy and what he can afford to finance. A little bit or risk calculations are also needed. Else, if you can't predict the future, you don't borrow money you can't return. One doesn't need to have a PhD in rocket science to understand this, just basic education and a functional common sense.

We have a free market, so the state can't stop the consumer from borrowing money. There are ways, though, to apply the breaks to the "institutions" that sell money, since they are a vital part of the system.

Here the problem is the banks. National Credit Act (RSA) and the protection provided under the act. Short true story, two brothers in my local town (property investors) build a warehouse with facilities to stack and store cars on top of each other. This warehouse they in turn rent to the local commercial banks. It's just up my street from my workplace and every day repo-cars come in-and- out of this warehouse. Those going out goes to auction, being repossessed by the banks. Mainly BRANDS off course...Audi's, BMW's. Merc's, RRovers etc. So @ auction the cars are actioned off with no reserve. Thus the bank gets whatever it can get and the rest is written off. Need i say more?
 
Holland, -31.4%! -30.4% YTD.

http://www.raivereniging.nl/actueel...-maart-2013-31-4-lager-dan-in-maart-2012.aspx

Much of the smart-money crowd were sure it would be the likes of Slovenia that would follow Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, ... , in blowing up, but it looks like the supposedly sensible Dutch, thanks to falling for massively inflated house prices, as a quick route to get rich, could actually be next, as indicated by the collapse in car buying. Interesting times.
 
^
Betty is going to have a field day:whistle:

Brace yourself Kilcrohane :D

I pay attention to my financial advisor, not some clown on the internet. :D

There may be some truth in what Kilcrohane is saying though. Yesterday I had to lay off one of my pool guys and I can only afford five holidays this year.
 
And this will sound all to familiar @martinbo 60 Moths / 40% residual (or guaranteed buy-back:D)
South-Africa's finest deal:rolleyes:

Precisely

Btw. the misses interested in a Volvo? Overdue, time for a get together I will must have a chat with your spouse about the Volvo thingy:):D

She wasn't really that interested in the Volvo. We're in the market to replace my workhorse WRX. It no longer makes as much sense for all the travel I do. I love driving it but I can't reconcile that I need a 2.5 litre turbo AWD car as a commuter. Maybe I ought to buy a little hatchback and spend a small amount of money on a daily driver? The thinking behind the Volvo is that it could be the wife's car, I'd then take over the Forester which has low mileage, maintenance plan and relatively low repayments. The Volvo had oodles of character and feel-good factor but it comes with several drawbacks, one of which is the poor depreciation of Volvos in SA. A Golf 7 (anyone here driven one?) is fantastic! But it's so good that it's clinical to the point of being sterile.

I desperately want an M135i. I can "afford" one but simply can't justify it as my daily driver. I'd have to be far wealthier for the Beemer to be a financially responsible acquisition.
 
She wasn't really that interested in the Volvo. We're in the market to replace my workhorse WRX. It no longer makes as much sense for all the travel I do. I love driving it but I can't reconcile that I need a 2.5 litre turbo AWD car as a commuter. Maybe I ought to buy a little hatchback and spend a small amount of money on a daily driver? The thinking behind the Volvo is that it could be the wife's car, I'd then take over the Forester which has low mileage, maintenance plan and relatively low repayments. The Volvo had oodles of character and feel-good factor but it comes with several drawbacks, one of which is the poor depreciation of Volvos in SA. A Golf 7 (anyone here driven one?) is fantastic! But it's so good that it's clinical to the point of being sterile.

I desperately want an M135i. I can "afford" one but simply can't justify it as my daily driver. I'd have to be far wealthier for the Beemer to be a financially responsible acquisition.

Makes perfect sense! As for me ordering a 435i coupe is 'selfish' actually;) X1 went for her 22000 km service 2 April. Keep her and buy myself a Ford Ranger DC XLT 2wd for more variety and practicality is the correct way to go about it - for me. The 435i will spend weekdays in the garage. Yet I want the BMW and will order it.

*This applies to the thread actually because I am doing what I am not suppose to do and what is financially stupid. Investing in a car (except for if it's a Bugatti Type?? from 1929) is a term that simply does not exist. And being a typical male petrol head it's costing me dearly. LOL
 
Here's another, very obvious when you think about it reason why car buying is slumping in Europe particularly:

http://www.autobild.de/artikel/statistik-oeffentlicher-personennahverkehr-2012-3937172.html
https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2013/04/PD13_127_461.html

- basically reporting that the number of journeys made by public transport in Germany in 2012, in comparison to 2011, was up, caused mainly by increased fuel costs for private transportation and job insecurity.

In many parts of Germany, Holland and similarly densely populated European countries, and ones still blessed with relatively cheap public transport systems - not the UK - there is often no real need to actually own a car/cars. A lot of car buying in these places is simply vanity.

It looks increasingly like the Germans, the Dutch and others have twigged that they can pretty much do without a car, and get about on their generally excellent bus, tram and train systems instead, if not by bike, in places like Amsterdam.
 
We are not living in economically sustainable times. The bubble is getting bigger but its skin, thinner. Something will have to give at some point.

Yea, the car industry will collapse. And German expensive cars will go first. BMW is in big big trouble.
 
UK, 400,000 registrations in March, +6%! That's almost as much as 50 million Spaniards in a year.

Yes! The Brits have officially joined the Americans in moving to La La Land. The power of PR on feeble minds is frightening.

What could possibly go wrong with trillions in unpayable debt as a nation, real negative GDP growth, real inflation running at 10%, real unemployment and under-employment at around 25%, but sub-prime predatory loans available to anyone with a pulse, and the ability to pay zero downpayment, 0% interest and up to 60/72 months to pay back, provided by Santander and GMAC/Ally, a Spanish bank bust by Spain's housing collapse and a previously bankrupted US bank?

The Brits have jumped the shark.
 
UK, 400,000 registrations in March, +6%! That's almost as much as 50 million Spaniards in a year.

Yes! The Brits have officially joined the Americans in moving to La La Land. The power of PR on feeble minds is frightening.

What could possibly go wrong with trillions in unpayable debt as a nation, real negative GDP growth, real inflation running at 10%, real unemployment and under-employment at around 25%, but sub-prime predatory loans available to anyone with a pulse, and the ability to pay zero downpayment, 0% interest and up to 60/72 months to pay back, provided by Santander and GMAC/Ally, a Spanish bank bust by Spain's housing collapse and a previously bankrupted US bank?

The Brits have jumped the shark.

:LOL:, get a grip, what a ridiculous rant. Since you are absolutely certain that the Auto industry faces imminent doom. Why don't you just get one of those 0% loans and go short auto stocks using some highly leveraged strategy (some way out the money put options through a spread betting firm will work nicely). You should be fantastically wealthy before the end of the year. Or do you not have sufficient belief in your own BS?

btw.
1. UK registrations peak in March and September because that's when the new number plates come out.
2. Us feeble minded Brits control our own currency and we can print enough of it to pay down that "unpayable debt" whenever we want. In fact we have paid down a third of it like that already.
 
^ ACE, like the Eton/Oxford Uni, at vast expense educated UK PM, Camoron, you have failed to understand the difference between debt and deficit.

The UK has not paid down one-third of its debt; the national debt continues to rise at around £100bn each year, at over £1 trillion cumulative already.

Through the buying of UK govt debt, "gilts", by the Bank of England, with money created out of nothing, i.e. direct debt monetisation, the UK govt is now spending and borrowing more than the last administration, at the height of the post Lehmans 2008 crash, and hence why the UK has lost its AAA credit status with two rating agencies.

What you meant was the deficit, not the debt. The deficit has been artificially massaged down to around £100bn by accounting tricks, like moving the Post Office's pension surplus onto the government's 'assets' column, whilst ignoring the corresponding liabilities - paying out those pensions in the future.

The UK is running a structural budget deficit of around 8-10% of GDP, higher than any other major developed economy, and only exceeded by the likes of Ireland, which is to all intents and purposes bankrupt.

As to sub-prime and predatory loans being a good thing, to boost car sales, to make the UK and US look healthy and in recovery, whilst Europe is collapsing, I suggest you recall 2007, when many experts thought the similar housing bubble, inflated by sub-prime loans, could continue to infinity, just shortly before it collapsed. Many, at least 10-20%, of those now receiving car loans in the UK and US, will not and never could make those monthly payments, and will default. see the Reuters report above on this point.

As to printing money, do you really think that is a good thing? My god. the brainwashing has been very successful.

You might believe the official, doctored inflation stats, but it is widely accepted that, thanks to QE, with £375bn in the UK and over $2 trillion in the U.S., plus anywhere up to $20 trillion in bailouts and backdoor support of the major banks by the Fed, the BoE and the ECB in total, by the creation out of thin air of money, real inflation for ordinary people, spending the majority of their little income on food, fuel and housing, is running at around 10%, against flat or declining wage levels.

People's real incomes in the UK and US have collapsed, since the 'recovery' of 2009, caused by money printing, sending prices of necessities, like food and fuel, wild, whilst unemployment has risen, and those still in jobs are seeing no pay rises or even pay cuts.

The only way to square the circle, to ensure rising new car sales, against this disastrous background, is either, admit it is all over, the jig's up, like the European people have basically done, or pretend, by conning people that by borrowing money they can still have that shiny new car, that they once financed back in the noughties, through remortgaging against rising house prices, and try to convince them with wall to wall media that rising car sales means the good times are back, and hence keep the ponzi scheme afloat for a while longer.

Of course it won't and can't mathematically work, as 2008's bust showed, but it will allow a few very rich, greedy, sociopathic people in the US and UK to extract just a bit more wealth from the dumb schmucks falling for this scam, before it all blows up again.
 
What you meant was the deficit, not the debt.

No. I meant exactly what I wrote, not what you tell me I meant. I never mentioned the deficit. One third of the debt was bought by the BoE using printed money. That's a fact. What the hell are you going on about?

You don't know me, my qualifications nor the position that I hold so don't try and tell me about what I don't understand about Economics.

What's your agenda here anyway? This a car enthusiast website, there are not many Economics experts here. Head over to the Economist's website. People there will tear your unsubstantiated drivel to shreds.

99% of the world's potential car buying population are tapped out by double digit price rises for staples and flat wages.
99% of the statistics in your posts are made up on the spot.
 
All these problems go way back to the decline of the industrial economy in the 70s. The plan from then onwards was to use cheap credit/money printing to inflate of real estate and stock prices while pushing everyone in house ownership in 401k stock portofolios (and maybe some bonds).
Even some of those 1% multi-billionaires are heavily indebted and many major corporations debt to asset rations up to 40 to 1. So that's why the tax loopholes and outsourcing to cheap labor, cheap currency, cheap entry costs countries.
 

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