Poll Tesla Model 3 vs German Rivals

[Centurion]

A Nokia Lumia priced as an iPhone or an iPhone priced as a Nokia Lumia ?
There's a common misconception that dinosaurs and giants are all and the same.
Tesla doesn't compete with the established automotive brands. It isn't entering their game nor is it trying to.
BMW, MB, VAG and Toyota will NOT be given the green light to offer a competitive product in this price range. It will at least take another 5 years for them to get to where Tesla is now.
By that time Tesla will likely be selling lvl.5 autonomous EV's with a range nearing or even exceeding 1000kms.
History proves that a Lumia isn't a viable alternative to an iPhone.
Tesla is far ahead when it comes to autonomous driving expertise and data and will legalize it much sooner than people would've thought.

Customers don't care whether BMW or Daimler are stuck at selling cars for decent profits.
All customers see is a giant company that's willing to sell its built from the ground-up autonomous EV's at a loss.

I love my old Nokia and am still in a relationship with the ICE.
Let's be real though. Our beloved dinosaurs are entering a game of giants.
They are selling horses fc'ss...

Out of all the estsblished players, BMW are most likely to offering a competing product to the Model 3 at a similar price. Given that they devoted millions towards creating BMWi, there is likely to lower resistance at board level to shoot for the stars.

 

[mini_cooper4]

Out of all the estsblished players, BMW are most likely to offering a competing product to the Model 3 at a similar price. Given that they devoted millions towards creating BMWi, there is likely to lower resistance at board level to shoot for the stars.

Yes, BMW is only a few years away from offering what is likely to be an inferior product.
Going by all the information we have on hand:

Cons:
Platform won't be dedicated.
Range will likely be shorter.
Price will likely be higher.
Autonomy will be lvl.2 at best.
Less airy/spacious interior.
BMW without the Motoren in it makes it just another car on the street.
The Ultimate Driving Machine without the Driving in it...


Pros:
Maybe... reliable?
The badge?
Styling?

Considering this is the closest/best thing to come from the establishment in the near future... things don't look too bright do they?
Sometimes you just have to start from scratch. None of them can afford that.
Tesla is upgrading their cars on almost a monthly basis. You simply can't keep up let alone catch up with that.
One thing dinosaurs are proven to fail at is adapting to extremely fast climate change.
"We could... but" is where they are all at. Tesla is here.

 

[EnI]

Comparing the "ICEVs vs BEVs" case to "mobile phones vs smartphones" case is not a good comparison.

I'll tell you why: smartphone is actually a tiny computer with mobile phone properties. So, every computer to operate well needs an excellent OS. And there's where Apple advantage was. Being a computer company Apple has it's own OS & computer-tech know-how. So, when it came to making small computers with mobile phone properties Apple had all the know how: they knew how to make an OS, and they knew how to make a computer. The rivals had none of that. Microsoft had OS expertise but no hardware one; while Nokia, Ericsson & Motorola knew how to make hardware but they lack a proper OS know-how to make a capable computer out of a mobile phone. And that's why Apple succeeded. They had all the needed know-how, they had relationship with suppliers (displays, cases, microchips, processors etc). No other mobile phone, computer or OS maker had that in their hands. Only Apple had. With also having portable music player expertise Apple also had the know-how how to pack lots of hardware into a small package. Not to mention they had excellent UX team so they offered a great UMI. Bingo!

Not to mention smartphone life-cycle is significantly shorten than a life-cycle of a more complex product like a automobile.

So, when it comes to Tesla ... All they have, others have too. All the major carmakers know how to make cars, how to make EVs, and they have relationship with suppliers. What they still lack - but that can be changed quite quickly - is the scales of battery supplies.

Tesla has a few significant advantages though:

• they started to make BEVs from scratch, without any ICE baggage. Therefore they need no transitional period to phase out current products (that have a life-cycle of approx- 5- 7 years)
• they have instantly built their own charging stations network while others are doing that at slower pace or waiting other providers (energy companies) to do that
• they a start-up with investors who encourage the company to burn money (and generate no profit) to build a new tech, a new product, and build an advantage over other carmakers. Other carmakers are obliged to make profits during the same process.
• they have much more capable & sizeable software team - which is going to be more important when it comes to Connected & Autnomomous drive ... there is the biggest advantage of Tesla
• they have an iconic & cult brand image - just like Apple has - with huge crowd of followers (that's more an advantage over non-premium car brands)

As said before ... BEVs are significantly simpler (the drivetrain) than ICEs ... therefore AD is easier to apply to BEVs than to ICEVs or to hybrids.

So, when there will be AD revolution - and if it happens soon enough (it depends on legislation though) - Tesla will have a significant advantage over others: they will have hardware & software know-how & optimised production scales & processes to be able to offer great AD BEVs. Others will lag behind. Some (carmakers) will have hardware to offer but no great software; others (IT giants) will have software but no hardware.

But that does not mean others will fail ... but they will just come to market later. Just like Apple has competition in Samsung et al. Tesla will still have many rivals - other carmakers & other IT giants. Sure some cards will be shuffled ... some brands will perhaps be sold to IT giants; some carmakers will collaborate IT giants (like smathphone makers do); there will some new players emerge - notably from China etc.

But Tesla now has - from the current POV - the best position to offer the best products when the time is due. But others are not sleeping ... Especially not the German carmakers ... They are investing a lot ... but the problem is they have a baggage of ICEVs and they have to make a smooth transition to BEVs. Mind even when carmakers start to sell BEVs only they will still have to produce spare parts & offer repair service for exiting (older) ICEs & PHEVs for quite some time. So, they'll have to operate with baggage on their backs. They have no privilege of a clean slate - like the start-ups have.

 

[Giannis]

On a slight off topic note, a friend picked me up a couple of hours ago and we went for coffee. We parked his Audi A5 next to a Tesla Model S with Norwegian plates - the first Tesla I've ever seen in real life.

I examined the car, it's sleek and actually looks very good and then its owner came. A friendly gentleman who drove about 3500 km from his home to here in a Model S. I asked him how difficult it is to drive a BEV in such a long distance and he said that it requires careful planning but it's certainly doable. He did the same last year with a diesel A4 and he drove here basically non stop, but with the Model S it took him several days.

Before saying goodbye he told me that he didn't expect to find zero electric car infrastructure in Greece and that for this reason he had to rent a car to drive around here.

That was an eye opening experience today!

 

[Centurion]

some brands will perhaps be sold to IT giants; some carmakers will collaborate IT giants (like smathphone makers do);

That's a more likely scenario than a tech company becoming a car manufacturer as the barriers to entry are huge. Tens of billions in funding required to achieve meaningful scale and outsourcing production isn't a possibility.

Apple's supposed car project has already shifted to autonomous technology with no customer to speak off. I wouldn't count on a partnership with an existing manufacturer being frictionless either. HP & Palm, Google & Motorola, Sony Ericsson and Microsoft & Nokia are painful examples of acquisitions that looked mighty on paper but flopped.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

I think that implementation of electric cars would be much more easier if all producers of el cars agree on standardized battery that could be very easily, when it's drained, dismounted from the car and replaced with a charged one of the same type. Than the charging stations would be stores for charged batteries at which you stop and replace the battery for 2 minutes like you can do now on an el forklift. The customer should pay for the el charge and the amortization of the battery and doesn't need to own the battery

 

[Centurion]

Before saying goodbye he told me that he didn't expect to find zero electric car infrastructure in Greece and that for this reason he had to rent a car to drive around here.

Are there not dedicated parking bays with charging ports at supermarkets or in urban streets in Greece?

 

[mini_cooper4]

Comparing the "ICEVs vs BEVs" case to "mobile phones vs smartphones" case is not a good comparison.

I'll tell you why: smartphone is actually a tiny computer with mobile phone properties. So, every computer to operate well needs an excellent OS. And there's where Apple advantage was. Being a computer company Apple has it's own OS & computer-tech know-how. So, when it came to making small computers with mobile phone properties Apple had all the know how: they knew how to make an OS, and they knew how to make a computer. The rivals had none of that. Microsoft had OS expertise but no hardware one; while Nokia, Ericsson & Motorola knew how to make hardware but they lack a proper OS know-how to make a capable computer out of a mobile phone. And that's why Apple succeeded. They had all the needed know-how, they had relationship with suppliers (displays, cases, microchips, processors etc). No other mobile phone, computer or OS maker had that in their hands. Only Apple had. With also having portable music player expertise Apple also had the know-how how to pack lots of hardware into a small package. Not to mention they had excellent UX team so they offered a great UMI. Bingo!

Not to mention smartphone life-cycle is significantly shorten than a life-cycle of a more complex product like a automobile.

So, when it comes to Tesla ... All they have, others have too. All the major carmakers know how to make cars, how to make EVs, and they have relationship with suppliers. What they still lack - but that can be changed quite quickly - is the scales of battery supplies.

Tesla has a few significant advantages though:

• they started to make BEVs from scratch, without any ICE baggage. Therefore they need no transitional period to phase out current products (that have a life-cycle of approx- 5- 7 years)
• they have instantly built their own charging stations network while others are doing that at slower pace or waiting other providers (energy companies) to do that
• they a start-up with investors who encourage the company to burn money (and generate no profit) to build a new tech, a new product, and build an advantage over other carmakers. Other carmakers are obliged to make profits during the same process.
• they have much more capable & sizeable software team - which is going to be more important when it comes to Connected & Autnomomous drive ... there is the biggest advantage of Tesla
• they have an iconic & cult brand image - just like Apple has - with huge crowd of followers (that's more an advantage over non-premium car brands)

As said before ... BEVs are significantly simpler (the drivetrain) than ICEs ... therefore AD is easier to apply to BEVs than to ICEVs or to hybrids.

So, when there will be AD revolution - and if it happens soon enough (it depends on legislation though) - Tesla will have a significant advantage over others: they will have hardware & software know-how & optimised production scales & processes to be able to offer great AD BEVs. Others will lag behind. Some (carmakers) will have hardware to offer but no great software; others (IT giants) will have software but no hardware.

But that does not mean others will fail ... but they will just come to market later. Just like Apple has competition in Samsung et al. Tesla will still have many rivals - other carmakers & other IT giants. Sure some cards will be shuffled ... some brands will perhaps be sold to IT giants; some carmakers will collaborate IT giants (like smathphone makers do); there will some new players emerge - notably from China etc.

But Tesla now has - from the current POV - the best position to offer the best products when the time is due. But others are not sleeping ... Especially not the German carmakers ... They are investing a lot ... but the problem is they have a baggage of ICEVs and they have to make a smooth transition to BEVs. Mind even when carmakers start to sell BEVs only they will still have to produce spare parts & offer repair service for exiting (older) ICEs & PHEVs for quite some time. So, they'll have to operate with baggage on their backs. They have no privilege of a clean slate - like the start-ups have.

Turns out you actually agree that Tesla is Apple in the automotive world and it just so happens that it unveiled its iPhone now.
As I said earlier "Nokia" is just about to announce its Lumia.
They do carry the baggage, yes... That's why they will lag behind.
They invest a lot you say. Tesla invests everything in one particular area - ADEV's.
Yes, BMW are doing their best in their current situation. So does that mean the customer should be sympathetic with them?
You'd be hard presses if you had to sell us the 3er EV over the Model 3.
I do get the reasoning behind it being inferior and that ICE is still the main focus of the establishment.
Cars are becoming more and more like phones. Tesla is upgrading its products over the air on almost a monthly basis. Simplicity is key. Expertise is key. Infrastructure is key. Image is key. Experience is key.

You, yourself are constantly summarizing on why BMW and Co. are unable to deliver such a car at such a price in such a short term. Well, that's my point - They can't. I don't care whether they could.

 

[EnI]

They will. That's the point. They are not in Nokia's position nor Tesla is not in Apple's. Cars are not phones. They are not as easy and as quick to made. That's why Elon is trying to simplify & revolutionize & cheapen the car production. But it's not as easy as he thinks it is. I wish him luck... Since such Fordistic revolution would bring great stuff for car buyers. And would bring troubles to other carmakers.

 

[mini_cooper4]

They will. That's the point. They are not in Nokia's position nor Tesla is not in Apple's. Cars are not phones. They are not as easy and as quick to made. That's why Elon is trying to simplify & revolutionize & cheapen the car production. But it's not as easy as he thinks it is. I wish him luck... Since such Fordistic revolution would bring great stuff for car buyers. And would bring troubles to other carmakers.

I agree. It won't be easy for Tesla either.

 

[Giannis]

Are there not dedicated parking bays with charging ports at supermarkets or in urban streets in Greece?

Nope.

 

[Cashmere]

Nope.

Hey Giannis, I was just looking up on PlugShare (which is an awesome app to show you charging stations anywhere in the world) and while there aren't Tesla branded chargers there are quite a few universal chargers in Athens which can work with all cars. Also the High Power stations are just as fast as Tesla's superchargers and also happen to be free in this case.

link--> PlugShare

 

[Centurion]

Nope.

I had a look at plugandshare and places to charge are non existent outside Athens.

 

[Giannis]

Hey Giannis, I was just looking up on PlugShare (which is an awesome app to show you charging stations anywhere in the world) and while there aren't Tesla branded chargers there are quite a few universal chargers in Athens which can work with all cars. Also the High Power stations are just as fast as Tesla's superchargers and also happen to be free in this case.

I didn't know this site. But upon closer inspection of all charging points in Athens, only 3 of them are publicly available. All others are inside parking garages. Parking garages in Athens tend to cost twice the minimum daily wage.

I had a look at plugandshare and places to charge are non existent outside Athens.

I live in Patras, the third biggest city of the country. The closest charging point is 150km away, at the Killini Grecotel Exclusive Resort. That's one of the 5 most expensive hotel resorts in the country. It's not publically available, unless you're a guest there.