Kilcrohane's view of the Automotive Industry and Global Economy


Kilcrohane

Porsche Perfektionist
German industry, er, über alles:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...ufacturing-summary-frances-loss-germanys-gain

German industry, and hence its auto industry, is humming like almost never before - well, at least back to the one-off, gigantic rebound level of 2010, from the huge collapse of 2008-9.

The Germans are surging ahead, whilst the rest of Europe re-stagnates, including Britain*. Its auto industry is leading the way.

*http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/23/uk-britain-economy-cbi-idUKBREA3M0K720140423 - lots of hopes for 'jam tomorrow' but actual orders reduced 'unexpectedly' - the average Brit is biblically broke.

Thanks to the huge rise in registrations of new cars in the UK - back to the boom-time levels of 2004 - driven by rising house prices, German industry is struggling to keep up with orders even from within Europe.

It's clear now that the temporary surge by JLR in the 2011-2013 period has been halted by the incessant, avalanche-like of new product launches by the Germans. Porsche particularly has done grave damage to JLR. The Macan, it is clear already, has dealt a fatal blow to JLR's only true cash cow.

The only flies in the ointment for the going-gangbusters German auto industry is the inevitable implosion of the UK house price bubble, and hence a collapse in new car buying, like 2008-2009, but on stilts this time, and a far more serious possible implosion of the Chinese economy.

The Chinese currency keeps on falling, making life much harder for those companies importing cars into China, like JLR, but the Germans are all expanding massively their local production capacities, as fast as possible to counteract this, and of course by doing so helping to fend off a severe economic slowdown in China by these huge investment projects, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and real consumer purchasing power.

In summary, the Germans are back where they have pretty much always been when it comes to big-time industry, Europe's dominant leader, and vying for global leadership, which has been the case since at least 1870.

JLR is being hit by falling currencies, the dollar, yuan, euro and rupee, with no or very little local production to counteract, and is falling further and further behind in the life-or-death new product development activity.
 
It will end in tears, once the pound falls calamitously again, as it did in 2008, by 30%, but until then the Germans may as well milk it for every single pound, borrowed by the somewhat credulous British consumers, thinking debt and credit is real wealth, and their house price will always go up and up, in Ponzi fashion
Boy, you really have issues with the British. So much anger and venom.

The UK is a huge car market. I don't know exactly what "news" you're imparting here. For many years it was the third biggest M Division market after Germany and the U.S.

60,000,000 population, 6th biggest GDP in the world. So MB are almost as big in the UK as Germany and the U.S. And? What's your point?
 
Pity anyone selling cars in China and making them in UK:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=CNY&view=1Y

15% depreciation of the Yuan against the pound in just 9 months, and headed for a 4-year low!

or selling cars in the U.S. and making them in UK:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

14% drop of the dollar against the pound in just 9 months, a 4.5-year low!

Could this explain why, in addition to being smashed by the likes of the S-Class and Macan in the marketplace, there was no usual fanfare in the lamestream media of JLR's Stalin tractor production-like sales figures this last month?

Any further rise of the pound and it'll be impossible for even Tata/JLR to hide the enormous damage to the business, and will be a re-run of the implosion of John Egan's Jaguar Cars outfit in the late 1980s, that suffered at the hands of a massively overvalued pound, caused by the deliberate loose credit and stoked house price boom of Chancellor Nigel Lawson. Plus ça change... .

As the British pound is being deliberately run up in order to convince the hoi polloi that there is a real recovery, and not just another deliberate house price bubble, and the election in UK is not due for another year, the damage will continue for a good while yet, and get worse for UK exporters, like JLR.

A strengthening and strengthening pound, a weakening in key currencies - like the yuan and dollar, 'unforeseen' competition from until very recently dismissively written-off players like Mercedes-Benz and Fiat-Chrysler's Jeep and Maserati brands, as well as the continual juggernaut of new product development form VAG and BMW, is combining to make a perfect storm for the up until less than a year ago darling of every media scribbler and all the so-called industry experts, prophesying nought but a golden future and an unstoppable advance, even surpassing the tired and boring Germans, for Tata's JLR. As is now usual, the 'experts' were about 180-degrees wrong. Oh dear, my heart bleeds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-24/real-pain-about-begin-chinese-currency-slumps-19-month-lows
 
As the British pound is being deliberately run up

Haha, by whom? Making a material difference in a major exchange rate would take hundreds of billions of pounds. The only sterling player big enough is the BoE and they are positioned the other way, at least until they unwind their £375 billion QE position.

And since you're now pretending to know something about currency trading, did it occur to you before posting your drivel that all major auto manufacturers hedge their forward currency exposure years in advance? I know what VW, BMW, Daimler and even your most hated JLR are doing in the currency markets and you are talking crap, as usual.

What is your agenda with posting all this unsubstantiated crap?
 
where GCF leads, others apparently follow. remember this?:

German industry, er, über alles:

German industry, and hence its auto industry, is humming like almost never before

The Germans are surging ahead, whilst the rest of Europe re-stagnates, including Britain*. Its auto industry is leading the way.

In summary, the Germans are back where they have pretty much always been when it comes to big-time industry, Europe's dominant leader, and vying for global leadership, which has been the case since at least 1870.

http://www.germancarforum.com/commu...13-total-audi-bmw-mb.50115/page-6#post-692222
as if by coincidence, Car and Driver now writes this:

25 Years After the Japanese Onslaught, Germany Is Winning

the Lexus and Infiniti luxury divisions of Toyota and Nissan along with Acura, this trio of hot rookie brands intended to turn the lights off in Germany next[after killing Detroit]. That was 25 years ago, and it didn’t quite work out as planned, as the sales figures for calendar-year 2013 prove.

http://www.caranddriver.com/columns...-japanese-onslaught-germany-is-winning-column
Hmmm.
 
Could this explain why, in addition to being smashed by the likes of the S-Class and Macan in the marketplace, there was no usual fanfare in the lamestream media of JLR's Stalin tractor production-like sales figures this last month?

where GCF leads, others apparently follow. remember this?:
http://www.germancarforum.com/commu...13-total-audi-bmw-mb.50115/page-6#post-692222
as if by coincidence, Car and Driver now writes this:
http://www.caranddriver.com/columns...-japanese-onslaught-germany-is-winning-column
Hmmm.

Well, aside from the fact that the Car & Driver article was already in print and available at newsstands... but by all means, continue to fling it at the wall and see what sticks. I'll give you bonus points, however, for being bold enough to take credit for influencing a magazine article that went to print weeks ago a mere four posts after referencing Stalin-era propaganda tactics.

The article, though, was a good read. Big thanks to @GTA8.5 for posting the scans of it in the appropriate forum yesterday (y)
http://www.germancarforum.com/commu...fter-the-japanese-onslaught-car-driver.50563/
 
reality's a bitch:

Exhibit A: Ford's Q1 profits severely impacted by currency devaluations:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-25/ford-misses-top-and-bottom-line-blames-weather-and-fx

But, but, I thought the 'experts' told us all they need to do is hedge?!! Maybe Ford should employ 'experts' and not the thousands and thousands of MBAs, accountants, lawyers, auditors and FX traders it already does.

Exhibit B: Cutting tool maker a stone's throw from new JLR engine plant shuts up shop, blaming:

The company makes metal-cutting tools for engineering, aerospace and car firms, which it said were “not growing in the UK”.
http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/business-news/up-143-jobs-axed-sandvik-7029884

Great Swedish steel company Sandvik closes down cutting tool factory, literally just down the road from much hyped new engine plant for JLR.

Surely the boost from this new wonderful engine plant, requiring lots of cutting tools, and the fact that according to the official body of the automotive sector in the UK, the SMMT*, the UK automotive sector is at near record levels of output, then this renowned company should be benefiting greatly from all this mushrooming activity, rather than shutting up shop?! Something doesn't add up. I wonder what it could be? Lies and propaganda? Surely not!

* http://www.smmt.co.uk/2014/04/car-manufacturing-march-2014/

The SMMT can ballyhoo all it wants about the UK auto sector's 'epic success', but Sandvik tells the real story. There is no growth in the UK's automotive industry - indeed the commercial vehicles sub-sector has collapsed, with production down 60% from five years ago.

What there is is a headline-grabbing mild increase in output of passenger car final assembly units, from what are known as 'screwdriver' factories. Almost all the real value adding is done either overseas and shipped in for final nailing together or by foreign-owned tier 1 suppliers with local JIT operations, relying on semi-skilled labour.
 
:asshat:^ This thread is about Global Sales of Audi, BMW and Merc. Make your own "I hate JLR and everything British thread", preferably on another website!
 
:asshat:^ This thread is about Global Sales of Audi, BMW and Merc. Make your own "I hate JLR and everything British thread", preferably on another website!

Ι have to agree. While quite interesting, what @Kilcrohane says are off-topic to this thread. Perhaps you could start a new thread.

;)
 
Ι have to agree. While quite interesting, what @Kilcrohane says are off-topic to this thread. Perhaps you could start a new thread.

;)


"Quite interesting" Giannis? It's completely biased BS! How long is this person going to be allowed to continue to use this forum for his poisonous clap-trap?! Just reading the language he uses should tell you this is more than just imparting information for discussion on a forum. It's xenophobic diatribe with a completely one-sided viewpoint. He hates JLR, he hates Britain in general.

How do you know whether what he's saying has any merit whatsoever? He's so biased that you cannot possibly take it seriously.

God knows what the story behind it all is.
 
The only "sin" Kilcrohane is doing here is that he posts off-topic posts (should have been posted in dedicated threads instead). Sure he is (over)passionate but he's right in what he is saying. OK, the things are not (as of yet) as dramatic as he portrays them but going there ...

Btw, another off-topic one: EU officials have just recently experienced an epiphany regarding diesel engines ... Admitting that forcing & favoring diesel development over petrol turbocharged engines development WAS A MISTAKE. Since it turned out turbocharged (low-displacement) petrol engines are overall cleaner than diesel ones! And now we know: Toyota has always been right - not believing in diesel tech much, seeing it as "dirty tech". As much R&D money as it has been invested in diesel tech would (if invested in petrol tech instead) lead to sooner development of much cleaner & more efficient petrol turbo engines. So, a few years or even decades have been wasted, obviously. What this story tells as eg. about EVs? Or plug-in hybrids? Would it be better to rather developing petrol engines further instead (and not hybridizing them)?

Here you have a topic to discuss, Betty ... Here it seems some powerful lobbies have been behind drawing the agenda. :)
 
The only "sin" Kilcrohane is doing here is that he posts off-topic posts........... Sure he is (over)passionate but he's right in what he is saying........... OK, the things are not (as of yet) as dramatic as he portrays them......

Whether he is right in what he is saying is irrelevant. He's gone beyond having his "say" and "opinion" to just using the forum to constantly vent his spleen. He's relentlessly trolling and pushing his heavily biased "agenda". Clearly he has an axe to grind against JLR, and on a wider scale, Britain in general. How you can take his posts as "facts" is beyond me.

From the rules of GCF:
Please do not use German Car Forum to promote or engage in political debates or promote propaganda.


Maybe if this selection of comments posted by @Kilcrohane were against BMW you might see him for what he is:

"The Shittest/Most Dangerous/Most Overpriced/Joke engineered/Joke Built/Most cynical POS ever... ...in the World".

"The sooner this nasty pos company goes bust the sooner the world can move on from this disgraceful episode in human affairs"

"I shan't be reading your turgid, incontinent prose, nor countering any 'facts' trotted out by the defenders of the shyster outfit known as JLR".

"JLR is only relevant on internet forums. In the real world it's a pin prick on the backside of the automotive universe".


"Oh the irony of Blighty's last great hope falling into the hands of the filthy Hun!"

And then there's this rant (in one single post) from last month against a moderator (@Monster):

"You never did get over me pulling you up on your engineering remark on the new Range Rover, did you Monster? Still festering away, just itching to hit the banned button, because of the slight you felt back then."

"Go ahead fella, push the button. I and others have noticed how juvenile and downgraded the 'debates' on your precious site have become anyway."

"Let's see if you need the click hits to maintain ad revenue or whether your simmering petty resentment caused by that early remark I pulled you on gets the better of your commercial judgment. From what I think I know of you, simmering petty resentment wins every time."

"For the record, don't pull that 'personal remarks' trite crap. Many others here chuck around far more direct insults with abandon, regularly, but don't get pulled."

"Was it the taming of the playground bully 'Betty Swollocks' by me, that in addition to the long-held slight, got your finger hovering over the ban button? Then good, that individual has serious personality issues, and I'm amazed no one sorted him out sooner."

The sooner this vile individual gets banned the better.
 
I spoke to a Regional Forex Trading Head at a French bank in Hong Kong at the end of last year and he said his Bank just did a 5 year RMB hedge for Porsche. The amount is equivalent to 80% of their forecast import volume for the duration of the contract.

I think most importers have similar hedges in place. Most of them are protected against any large currency volatility.
 

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