Politics Brexit Politics

[Matski]

And whilst there's a sort of formula for % GDP contributed, the formula that determines the net contribution to the EU seems very ad hoc. It has the UK, with a near identical GDP and population as France paying the 2nd most on net, whilst only having the 3rd most seats in EU parliament and being the 5th largest exporter in the EU.

These things may well be true. Are you saying that in any political and economic system, financial contribution should increase the weight of ones say? Do you think a system were the poor are subsidised by the wealthy is right or wrong and do you think it can exist without penalizing the wealthy?

I'm not asking these questions to be confrontational towards your stance on Europe, I'm just looking for either parallels, or contradictions, on how people expect our domestic system of power to work (at personal, local and national levels) and whether those same rules are applied to their expectation on how the EU should work.

Yet we are told the rebate is some kind of massively favourable thing.

Who by?

 

[Matski]

Idiots shouldn't be allowed to vote in the first place.

Everyone should be allowed* to vote, we just shouldn't let them be idiots in the first place.


*edit: actually I think everyone should be required to vote, but that needs to come after other reforms.

 

[SCOTT27]

They (the EU) are in Panic mode of no deal. Watch who blinks first.

 

[WBarnes]

Disagree wih most of it. But what stood out is your suggestion to better to be with Australia, New Zealand and Canada instead of the EU, which is about a bazillion times more important than those specs you mentioned (no disrespect).

Also, people don't want to leave the UK. It's a vocal minority who does, plus all the ignorant bastards who have no clue abou...

Is it though? Most of the trade is coming from the EU into the UK, i.e. there is more of our market being taken by being part of the EU than being gained and we have to give away copious amounts of cash in exchange for that through:

a) % GDP contributions.
b) Non-EU tariffs given to EU.
c) Remittances paid out of the UK economy by uncontrolled amounts of foreign workers.
d) Overseas child benefit payments.
e) Subsidisation of foreign students at UK universities;
f) Keeping EU convicts in UK prisons;
g) General infrastructure/services burdening.

Lately the EU has been like having to pay child support for a load of children that aren't even yours. Only 10 of 28 members are actually net contributors yet the EU always seems to have the gall to give us the speech about not having the benefits without the responsibilities... unless you're Belgium, or Luxembourg or other, then you get paid for having the benefits. None of it makes any sense.

That said, now that we've reached the point of leaving anyway, it would have been far better to have remained part of the old Commonwealth trading bloc, with an integrated defence and trade policy than going it alone. It would also be more a partnership of equals rather than a partnership where a few countries are tasked with rebuilding ex-Soviet SSRs and WarPACT ruins.

(I assume you meant leave the EU). It's not a vocal minority though, it's a 52% majority and 419 out of 650 constituencies. The latter of which is arguably more important since it determines seats in parliament.

You make it sound as though all previous elections and votes were based on honesty. Some of the sources making economic forecasts about Brexit previously estimated that the induction of A8 nations would only lead to an immigration increase of 10,000. So when they can be out by a factor of 10-20 based on past performance, why should anyone pay them any credence now. 'Fake news' on social media is simply the result of agenda-driven mainstream news that people are sick of.

It also seems unfair that the only war criminal in the politicians you list should escape imprisonment and also ominous that the only war criminal in that list is the most in favour of remaining in the EU.

 

[WBarnes]

These things may well be true. Are you saying that in any political and economic system, financial contribution should increase the weight of ones say? Do you think a system were the poor are subsidised by the wealthy is right or wrong and do you think it can exist without penalizing the wealthy?

I'm not asking these questions to be confrontational t...

Well we have socialisation within nation states but when you start talking about socialising every nation that's a bit poorer than you it's a slippery slope. Pretty soon the latter makes the former impossible. And Britain already gives away a substantial quantity of money in foreign aid but there are no nations in Europe that really need foreign aid if we're being honest. To make matters worse, Scotland and NI are already heavily subsidised by England & Wales before we even move outside the UK, so it's no great surprise that the people of England & Wales voted to end subsidisation beyond UK borders.

I think the answer is no, I don't expect the EU to work that way. If nations can't pay their way they shouldn't be in the EU. If nations have prison that don't meet ECHR requirements, they should not be in the EU. Free movement should not imply free domicile. Free movement should not extend beyond the Eurozone either.

The EU tells us the rebate is massively favourable towards the UK, when in fact it was a poor attempt at fixing a chronic imbalance in payments.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

Well we have socialisation within nation states but when you start talking about socialising every nation that's a bit poorer than you it's a slippery slope. Pretty soon the latter makes the former impossible. And Britain already gives away a substantial quantity of money in foreign aid but there are no nations in Europe that really need foreign aid...

Following your logic West Germany would never unite with East Germany. But the things are not so simple and sometimes is necessary to give more, than what you get, which is a kind of investment in the future.

 

[WBarnes]

Following your logic West Germany would never unite with East Germany. But the things are not so simple and sometimes is necessary to give more, than what you get, which is a kind of investment in the future.

Different matter, they were both originally one country and as I pointed out England & Wales already subsidises Scotland and NI. Although West Germany performed better in the World Cup before re-uniting, so was it really worth it?

The future is a very long way off, and there are better places to spend that money nationally right now. I guess if we were a much bigger exporter it might be nearly worth it, but the reality is that we're not and we're giving away money hand over fist for no return. We'd honestly be best keeping that money, tariffing up and installing plenty of NTBs and replacing EU imports with domestic stuff as much as possible. I would accept the alternative of full market access for goods and services but the EU will never let that happen, so it's only fair to do to their goods exports what they are going to do to our services exports.

 

[chonkoa]

I am suggesting that radical change need to take place. Whilst I don't think the people should be subject to a dictatorship, I do think that the freedom of the media (inc. social media - a uniquely 21st century weapon aimed at a 13th century political system), should be restricted or have far more severe degrees of accountability. We can aim to make t...

I honestly think there need to be reforms in both the political, judicial,social and economic landscape in Western democracies. The issues to which you rightly highlighted are not unique to UK but to NAM as well.
But for us to get to that point, I honestly think things might get worse before they get better.

 

[WBarnes]

Well the latest amendments to the Brexit deal seem meaningless. 'Cannot be permanent'. Hell, even the universe is not permanent. So the EU would only be in breach of this at T + Infinity and the ability to remove the backstop at the end of time isn't exactly reassuring.

 

[Deleted member 1071]

Hell, even the universe is not permanent.

A subject contemplated, with reservation, by no other than Albert Einstein. His convictions regarding human stupidity were far more firmly anchored.

 

[WBarnes]

A subject contemplated, with reservation, by no other than Albert Einstein. His convictions regarding human stupidity were far more firmly anchored.

Well it hasn't always been around. But my point was that even the Sun and Earth will have died before permanent can be claimed, so text stating that the backstop can't be permanent means nothing.

 

[Centurion]

The result of the vote is out. Defeat by a majority of 149.

What follows next will be extremely interesting and complicated. A no-deal scenario is undesired by members across several parties. However the Good Friday agreement shackles the UK to the EU in one way or another.

Membership in the EU is like a marriage that is designed not to be annulled. Given that the deal took 12-18 months to be negotiated, extension of article 50 won’t make a difference as there are too many parties to please and too many no-goes to negotiate.

 

[WBarnes]

The result of the vote is out. Defeat by a majority of 149.

What follows next will be extremely interesting and complicated. A no-deal scenario is undesired by members across several parties. However the Good Friday agreement shackles the UK to the EU in one way or another.

Membership in the EU is like a marriage that is designed not to be annulled. G...

At this point I think a no deal is the best option and maybe just try not having a border in Ireland and see what happens.

But yes, I agree, what's true now will be true in 3 months or 3 years, the negotiations are at a stalemate. Unless the extension is to allow time to plan for a no deal it's a waste of time.

 

[klier]

A subject contemplated, with reservation, by no other than Albert Einstein. His convictions regarding human stupidity were far more firmly anchored.

But for what it's worth, Einstein is just building on Newton's ideas. And Einstein himself, though utterly genius of course, didn't even know there was more galaxy outside of the Milky Way.

Well it hasn't always been around.

Indeed. Before the Big Bang there was another universe. And when the black holes have all evaporated in 10^100 years, this universe will also come to an end, and give birth to the next Big Bang. A Cyclic Universe (Sir Roger Penrose)

 

[Matski]

It's a mess, the government remains not fit for purpose.

 

[Centurion]

At this point I think a no deal is the best option and maybe just try not having a border in Ireland and see what happens.

But yes, I agree, what's true now will be true in 3 months or 3 years, the negotiations are at a stalemate. Unless the extension is to allow time to plan for a no deal it's a waste of time.

The problem with a no deal scenario is that the short and medium term consequences will be severe. In time when mobility of businesses is high, factories and warehouses would relocate to Europe is there were to be tariffs for goods from the UK into the EU.

Securing favourable trade deals with China, India, Japan and the US would take years. The EU has also iterated that a transition agreement is conditional on a withdrawal agreement, so crashing out without a deal would significantly hurt UK businesses exporting to the EU.

 

[chonkoa]

At this point I think a no deal is the best option and maybe just try not having a border in Ireland and see what happens.

But yes, I agree, what's true now will be true in 3 months or 3 years, the negotiations are at a stalemate. Unless the extension is to allow time to plan for a no deal it's a waste of time.

I reckon Hard-Brexit it is.

 

[chonkoa]

The problem with a no deal scenario is that the short and medium term consequences will be severe. In time when mobility of businesses is high, factories and warehouses would relocate to Europe is there were to be tariffs for goods from the UK into the EU.

Securing favourable trade deals with China, India, Japan and the US would take years. The EU has...

I think is it is important for Britain to go back to the Anglosphere and strengthen those alliances.

 

[Centurion]

I think is it is important for Britain to go back to the Anglosphere and strengthen those alliances.

The issue that protectionism is back on the agenda. Both China and the US are rightfully putting their economic interest before any another nations. I doubt the U.K. will have much luck scoring agreements that benefit more than just importers and exporters of raw materials or industrial machinery. Even India remains a nightmare when it comes to import tariffs and taxation on foreign economy activity within the country.

 

[chonkoa]

The issue that protectionism is back on the agenda. Both China and the US are rightfully putting their economic interest before any another nations. I doubt the U.K. will have much luck scoring agreements that benefit more than just importers and exporters of raw materials or industrial machinery. Even India remains a nightmare when it comes to import t...

True but it is only fleeting, but I reckon in the end we will gravitate back to a modified form of the remnants of the current world order. I think our current geopolitical turmoil are primarily driven by the excesses of trade-imbalances, and to some extent and an over-extension of Neo-liberalism.
What I am beginning to notice is that people still want to have a national identity. What I do believe we are witnessing is a clash of the globalist and the nationalist, and in the end there will be policy boundaries built for both to co-exist. To me an external threat to the order will redirect peoples focus back to alliances that have held for decades.

So back to your valid point, I believe the arc of history in the near term(10-15) years will be that of re-balancing towards alliances albeit in a narrower form. The re-balancing in my opinion will hopefully bring about reforms as well, which may have a knock-on effect on trade.