Hot! BMW AG: What's Next

[Deleted member 25]

I disagree, i still find the Mini cars have a special flair and are fun to drive, it's not because the lineup is big and the cars more practical (so more conventional ) that the brand is now only a badge put on top of a cash cow .

 

[Matski]

There was talk of a small light weight platform in conjunction with Toyota, which might make a lot of sense, but realistically the volume sellers need to be serviced first, and I suspect those asking for more space, comfort and safety, outweigh those who hope for a return to an idea that I suspect is very difficult to achieve these days.

 

[SCOTT27]

MINI sales are down in the USA but up everywhere else. MINI's problem in the US is that it thrived during high gas prices but now people don't see the need for economy. I expect the Countryman and especially the hybrid version to start picking up MINI sales in the US. The Clubman in global outlook simply shows it is the right product for MINI.

 

[EnI]

BMW to raise production capacity to 3 million cars by 2020: Handelsblatt

Tuesday, May 09, 2017 1:25 p.m. EDT

FILE PHOTO: A BMW logo is pictured before the annual news conference of German premium automaker BMW in Munich March 19, 2014. REUTERS/M

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German luxury carmaker BMW Group will raise its annual production capacity to 3 million cars by 2020 and plans to build its X5 offroader in China, German daily Handelsblatt said, citing company sources familiar with the plans.

BMW Group, which includes the Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, and built 2.37 million cars last year, plans to double its production capacity in China to 600,000 cars, Handelsblatt said.

In North America and Mexico, production capacity will be increased to 750,000 vehicles from 410,000, the paper said, adding that BMW brand wants to overtake rival Mercedes-Benz, which is owned by Daimler , to reclaim the volume sales crown for premium carmakers.

BMW declined to comment on the Handelsblatt report.

BMW to raise production capacity to 3 million cars by 2020: Handelsblatt

 

[Rainer271]

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[EnI]

BMW to raise production capacity to 3 million cars by 2020: Handelsblatt

Also don't forget additional production growrh via outsourcing to eg. Magna Styer and NedCar.

Some investor documents show 2020 planned production figure @ 3.2million (outsourcing to Magna & NedCar included).

That's 35% production (and sales as well) increase in the next four years.

Catching up with MB's production capacities (incl. smart) faster than initially planned.

 

[klier]

3 millions cars in one year? Damn.......

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

3,2 mln in 2020 from 2,36 mln in 2016! This is more than 800k units increase.
I will try to speculate from where this increase could come:
1er in 2016 - 176k, with the shift to FWD maybe they will manage to sell 230k per year, so 55k increase
2er (coupe, cabrio and AT) in 2016 200k most probably there will be no change
3er in 2016 - 411k and the tendency doesn't look good for the sedans. So with the new generation they could probably reach to 450k, another 40k
4er in 2016-133k, coupes are also not in trend now, so maybe no change
5er in 2016-331k, with China sales constantly increasing (its almost 1/2 of all 5er sales) it could reach 400k per year, so another 70k
6er - 2016 - 13k, it will change to 6GT and if it is produced also in China it could probably reach 40-50k per year. Another 30k more
7er in 2016 - 61k, it will get older so the numbers in 2020 will be similar at best
X1 in 2016 - 220k, with the Chinese production in could get to 300k. 80k more.
X2 new model, and if it is produced also in China will be around 100-120k
X3 in 2016 - 157k. The model with the biggest potential for growth. Maybe 300k in 2020. 140 more
X4 in 2016 - 58k. Just because of the increase in this market I suppose 100k in 2020. Another 40k more
X5 in 2016 - 166k. If it is produced in China it could get to 220k. 55k more
X6 in 2016 43k, It would not get more than 60k. App 15k more
X7 new model. I don't know what the plans of BMW for this model are, but I expect that is something like 60-70k per year.
BMW i in 2016 - 30k. No big change since we are not expecting any new models till 2021.
8er - maybe 40k
9er - maybe 25k
So close to 750k from BMW and the rest 50k should be from Mini. RR is not considered in this numbers

 

[Matski]

3,2 mln in 2020 from 2,36 mln in 2016! This is more than 800k units increase.
I will try to speculate from where this increase could come:
1er in 2016 - 176k, with the shift to FWD maybe they will manage to sell 230k per year, so 55k increase
2er (coupe, cabrio and AT) in 2016 200k most probably there will be no change
3er in 2016 - 411k and the tendency doesn't look good for the sedans. So with the new generation they could probably reach to 450k, another 40k
4er in 2016-133k, coupes are also not in trend now, so maybe no change
5er in 2016-331k, with China sales constantly increasing (its almost 1/2 of all 5er sales) it could reach 400k per year, so another 70k
6er - 2016 - 13k, it will change to 6GT and if it is produced also in China it could probably reach 40-50k per year. Another 30k more
7er in 2016 - 61k, it will get older so the numbers in 2020 will be similar at best
X1 in 2016 - 220k, with the Chinese production in could get to 300k. 80k more.
X2 new model, and if it is produced also in China will be around 100-120k
X3 in 2016 - 157k. The model with the biggest potential for growth. Maybe 300k in 2020. 140 more
X4 in 2016 - 58k. Just because of the increase in this market I suppose 100k in 2020. Another 40k more
X5 in 2016 - 166k. If it is produced in China it could get to 220k. 55k more
X6 in 2016 43k, It would not get more than 60k. App 15k more
X7 new model. I don't know what the plans of BMW for this model are, but I expect that is something like 60-70k per year.
BMW i in 2016 - 30k. No big change since we are not expecting any new models till 2021.
8er - maybe 40k
9er - maybe 25k
So close to 750k from BMW and the rest 50k should be from Mini. RR is not considered in this numbers

Interesting. A couple of notes for consideration....

Z4 still to come, should do much more than the outgoing one.

i models are both expecting updates and potential range increases, along with the i8 Spyder - but I agree no big change.

1-er increase should come mostly from the addition of the Sedan - CLA and A3 sedan are worth around 100k units to their companies, I'm sure a large portion of those go to China where the 1-er Sedan will be sold.

Potential addition of 2 series branded Gran Coupe model (F44?) - if the F52 stays in China this could be the small sedan model that gives BMW a volume boost elsewhere in the world.

225xe has been seen testing in the USA, perhaps a US market introduction of that model will give a volume boost.

X3L introduction in China may be quite popular

X7 sales were hoped to be around 45k to 50k a year according to Ian Robertson when the model was announced, might be more now since the market is still growing.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

Interesting. A couple of notes for consideration....

Z4 still to come, should do much more than the outgoing one.

i models are both expecting updates and potential range increases, along with the i8 Spyder - but I agree no big change.

1-er increase should come mostly from the addition of the Sedan - CLA and A3 sedan are worth around 100k units to their companies, I'm sure a large portion of those go to China where the 1-er Sedan will be sold.

Potential addition of 2 series branded Gran Coupe model (F44?) - if the F52 stays in China this could be the small sedan model that gives BMW a volume boost elsewhere in the world.

225xe has been seen testing in the USA, perhaps a US market introduction of that model will give a volume boost.

X3L introduction in China may be quite popular

X7 sales were hoped to be around 45k to 50k a year according to Ian Robertson when the model was announced, might be more now since the market is still growing.

You are completely right. It looks like I overestimated the numbers of 3er, so probably 380k, the 8er 25-30k and the 9er - 20k

 

[EnI]

With nickel-manganese cobalt batteries and highly flexible architecture, BMW plans to offer attractive electric cars with a range of up to 500 kilometers from 2020 on.

Full article (translated by Google)

 

[Deleted member 25]

I am sorry but Tesla is already offering that, is this the new CarbonCore 2.0, sexy engineering solution but with limited practical benefits ?

 

[EnI]

I am sorry but Tesla is already offering that

So what?

I'm sticking to my forecast: when big carmakers (BMW incl) will start offering loads of EVs in the next years, Tesla will be somehow toasted! Unless Tesla finds out some revolutionary production technique how to produce mass-volume cars faster, cheaper & better than anybody else. Since even before Tesla S Mk2 hits the roads, others will be ready with much much better products.

Tesla's advantage is they are a trailblazer ... They spend other people's money to be the first in the market ... generating losses and even negative net cash flow!!!! Even 14 years after.

Battery tech is getting cheaper; established carmakers are readying modular architectures for EVs; and that's it: they already have production facilities built & ready; supplier chain established; sales & afters sales network established ... many of them globally!
Not to mention high level of customization most established car makers are offering. Eg. Tesla will offer moderate customization for Model 3 - to make the production quick, simple & cheap as possible.

Tesla - right now - is still a carmaker that produces 80k cars a year. While they plan to produce 500k vehicles in 2018. Really? Do they have all the logistics set up? All the sales & after sales processes too?

Growing form production of 80k cars to 500k cars in a year is just nuts! At such expansion rate quality control (of products & even services) goes to toilet!

Sure, right now they still have enough advantage to make some moderate mistakes, but they can hurt brand image badly! Also since they are entering premium end of mass-market ... Model 3 is much more every day product than Model S and Model X which have attracted tech-savvy early adopters mostly.

Data shows many Model 3 prospects come from Economy brands like Toyota, Ford, Nissan, Honda, VW, Hyundai etc. While Tesla S & X customers mostly migrated to Tesla from premium brands.

Like Bob Lutz have said: Elon is delusional if he really thinks he's the only one getting the car business "right" while others have done all wrong since the birth of the car.

The point is established carmakers operate on different business model than Tesla (which still operates like start-up - burning other people's money & generating loses & negative net cash flow) ... migrating to EVs slower & @ different pace ... since they have an established market & customers to cater, and mid-term business plan (incl all the financing) in motion.

But the EV market is waking up ... the tech is booming ... prices are falling. And when others start to roll out Evs, there will be plenty of them in the market. And Tesla's offer will be lost in the ocean of EVs. They'll have to FIGHT for customers. With better & cheaper products. And that's not easy. Not at all.

Tesla needs a wealthy parent. An IT company. They will somehow have to invest all the piled up hundreds of billions somewhere. Eg. Apple sits on $250 billion (!!!!) cash reserve! Elon would be wise selling Tesla in the next years, and starting focusing on Hyperloop & SpaceX.

 

[Deleted member 25]

So what?

I'm sticking to my forecast: when big carmakers (BMW incl) will start offering loads of EVs in the next years, Tesla will be somehow toasted! Unless Tesla finds out some revolutionary production technique how to produce mass-volume cars faster, cheaper & better than anybody else. Since even before Tesla S Mk2 hits the roads, others will be ready with much much better products.

Tesla's advantage is they are a trailblazer ... They spend other people's money to be the first in the market ... generating losses and even negative net cash flow!!!! Even 14 years after.

Battery tech is getting cheaper; established carmakers are readying modular architectures for EVs; and that's it: they already have production facilities built & ready; supplier chain established; sales & afters sales network established ... many of them globally!
Not to mention high level of customization most established car makers are offering. Eg. Tesla will offer moderate customization for Model 3 - to make the production quick, simple & cheap as possible.

Tesla - right now - is still a carmaker that produces 80k cars a year. While they plan to produce 500k vehicles in 2018. Really? Do they have all the logistics set up? All the sales & after sales processes too?

Growing form production of 80k cars to 500k cars in a year is just nuts! At such expansion rate quality control (of products & even services) goes to toilet!

Sure, right now they still have enough advantage to make some moderate mistakes, but they can hurt brand image badly! Also since they are entering premium end of mass-market ... Model 3 is much more every day product than Model S and Model X which have attracted tech-savvy early adopters mostly.

Data shows many Model 3 prospects come from Economy brands like Toyota, Ford, Nissan, Honda, VW, Hyundai etc. While Tesla S & X customers mostly migrated to Tesla from premium brands.

Like Bob Lutz have said: Elon is delusional if he really thinks he's the only one getting the car business "right" while others have done all wrong since the birth of the car.

The point is established carmakers operate on different business model than Tesla (which still operates like start-up - burning other people's money & generating loses & negative net cash flow) ... migrating to EVs slower & @ different pace ... since they have an established market & customers to cater, and mid-term business plan (incl all the financing) in motion.

But the EV market is waking up ... the tech is booming ... prices are falling. And when others start to roll out Evs, there will be plenty of them in the market. And Tesla's offer will be lost in the ocean of EVs. They'll have to FIGHT for customers. With better & cheaper products. And that's not easy. Not at all.

Tesla needs a wealthy parent. An IT company. They will somehow have to invest all the piled up hundreds of billions somewhere. Eg. Apple sits on $250 billion (!!!!) cash reserve! Elon would be wise selling Tesla in the next years, and starting focusing on Hyperloop & SpaceX.

Tine i am happy to see that your position evolved on this (i forgot who was it, you or kashef who were predicting big carmakers Armageddon because of the much leaner Tesla/Google/X silicon valley operations), but all of this is macro.
I am only talking from the enthusiast perspective. BMW is making quite the noise about their iNext car, but i am afraid it will fall flat shortly after its launch, just like the whole I brand / Mass CRFP saga. A good product but far from the game changer it was promised to be because of unfulfilled promises. They are promising Level 5 autonomy + next level shit in EV tech. I have a lot of hard time believing Level 5 will be available in 4 years (Be it for technical or regulatory problems) and for the the battery, what matters is not the tech it boasts but the range it will offer and 500 km is nothing to write home about.

 

[EnI]

It was me, and it was regarding autonomous driving & mobility services, not EVs.

Sure BMW (and MB, Audi, VE etc) has to be loud with their FUTURE plans ... so the world knows they are up to something and they will be competitive in a few years. If being quite, stupid media & the general public would assume nothing is going on at BMW (and others), everything standing still, a fatal status quo. Since Tesla hype in media is unbelievable - stupid media people not knowing the industry at all.

500km is more than enough. It's on a gas driven car level.
More than 1000km battery range a rapid (10-15 minute) charging to at least 350km is more important.

When it comes to Level 5 ... it will be available in limited areas in 4 years. It all depends on 5G availability (for real-time car-2-car communication & superb real-time mapping & traffic info etc). Hardware is actually ready for Level 5; software / algorithms have to be written (the "who-to-save-first" dilemma) in sync with legislature - which is still missing in many countries.

And Level 5 - the autopilot product has to be multi-proof before featured in car. Otherwise accidents will happen , and will hurt the tech - hoe it will be perceived, accepted, trusted etc. Offering "autopilots" just for the sake of being first ... or even to use regular drivers as lab rats is stupid & dangerous!


When it comes to IT vs. automotive industry ... what automotive industry lack is an integral product package. Eg. google and apple will provide OS, apps, services and even hardware - compatible with any Apple OS or Google OS device. Automotive specific OSes won't be. At least not to such extent degree. Unless they will be based on Apple or Google OS - but on that case Google & Apple will collect data from car owners / users ... profiling them ... building databases of eg. BMW customers etc. And will be able to sell date to third parties (eg. even to the specific carmaker's rival) or will use data to sell ads to those people. And that's something carmakers absolutely don't want: somebody else having data and profiling of their respective customers. That would make carmakers vulnerable & dependent on Google, Apple etc. But in the end IT companies will prevail, and carmakers will become IT bitches. That's why I see "Armageddon". Sure many will survive due to attractive & respected brand names ... but many other brands just wont.

It's also all about the mentality. IT sector has very aggressive, predatory mentality. Automotive sector not so much. C'mon, they even have to motivate employees & lecture them about the "tech revolutions" and "new eras", and motivate them to accept the new normal and all the challenge.

Regarding Tesla ... I'll be posting some interesting info in Model 3 thread.

 

[EnI]

It looks like planned i5 was ditched for more conventional full-electric 4er GT

BMW 4-Series GT Electric key to firm's future plans | Autocar

 

[hoffmeister_fan]

It looks like planned i5 was ditched for more conventional full-electric 4er GT

BMW 4-Series GT Electric key to firm's future plans | Autocar

That's disappointing as I'd like to see how this would turn out. But it makes sense as electrification is making deeper inroads into their mainstream car lines.

 

[CrunchSlaughtered]

I like more the idea of a purpose designed electromobile than converted standard one. It is something like alcohol-free bier or Coca cola Zero, just a temporary substitution to the original.

 

[EnI]

The next flexible modular platforms WILL be designed with full-electric powertrain in mind. It won't be just a "converted" conventional architecture.

Due to such highly flexible architecture BMW will be able to offer EVs at very competitive prices, and will be able to swiftly address the demand when needed.

Flexible modular architecture also allows all cars of same model - regardless of powertrain type - can be made on the same production line. While dedicated platform need s dedicated production / assembly line , with dedicated tools etc. Such dedicated production process is volume limited & rather rigid & also more expensive ...

I do agree that sticking e-motor and batteries in the architecture primarily designed for ICE vehicles is lame. An afterthought.

But when an integral, highly flexible modular platform architecture is designed with all types of powertrain in mind, the benefits can be huge!

All the platforms won't be the exactly same but each will be deriving from the same platform, which will then be slightly modified to fit the specific powertrain / drivetrain best. That's the whole point of flexible & modular base architecture!

But all the cars from the same model - regardless of the powertrain - will share the same basic design, while some styling elements & trims (exterior & interior) will be different to separate the EVs form PHEVs & ICEV ... Form will follow function: eg. EVs won't have as many air intakes in the grille & front bumper etc; grille will be a bit different on EVs etc.

Core e models will differ from standard model looks by the degree M models differ from standard model looks.

BMW i sub-brand will remain an exotic & futuristic looking "tech-lab-on-wheels" for BMW. Therefore limited on rather niche very premium models, and will compete with niche models of other EV sub-brands like e-tron, EQ, I.D. etc (while core BMW EVs will compete with volume models of those EV sub-brands of VW, Audi, MB etc). BMW i is more like a halo sub-brand than a true EV sub-brand. BMW will address mass EV demand via core brands & models!

BMW i PHEVs & EVREx will become full EVs. New tech will be introduced to some models: eg. H2 fuel-cells. New materials & composites will be used for some components. New ConnectedDrive stuff will be introduced (incl Level 5 autonomous driving). New interface solutions will be introduced in BMW i vehicles etc. Tech that will eventually trickle down to core BMW Group brands.

Nothing much has changed. That all has been the plan from the beginning.
The only significant change is the scrapped i5 - a full-size family-oriented EV. Which should have already been introduced in 2017. But instead BMW have opted for a more exotic, and more advanced full-size luxurious EV few years down the line.
Electrification of core BMW Group brands & models has always been a plan. It's the only natural thing to happen.

 

[Serpens]

The next flexible modular platforms WILL be designed with full-electric powertrain in mind. It won't be just a "converted" conventional architecture.

Due to such highly flexible architecture BMW will be able to offer EVs at very competitive prices, and will be able to swiftly address the demand when needed.

Flexible modular architecture also allows all cars of same model - regardless of powertrain type - can be made on the same production line. While dedicated platform need s dedicated production / assembly line , with dedicated tools etc. Such dedicated production process is volume limited & rather rigid & also more expensive ...

I do agree that sticking e-motor and batteries in the architecture primarily designed for ICE vehicles is lame. An afterthought.

But when an integral, highly flexible modular platform architecture is designed with all types of powertrain in mind, the benefits can be huge!

All the platforms won't be the exactly same but each will be deriving from the same platform, which will then be slightly modified to fit the specific powertrain / drivetrain best. That's the whole point of flexible & modular base architecture!

But all the cars from the same model - regardless of the powertrain - will share the same basic design, while some styling elements & trims (exterior & interior) will be different to separate the EVs form PHEVs & ICEV ... Form will follow function: eg. EVs won't have as many air intakes in the grille & front bumper etc; grille will be a bit different on EVs etc.

Core e models will differ from standard model looks by the degree M models differ from standard model looks.

BMW i sub-brand will remain an exotic & futuristic looking "tech-lab-on-wheels" for BMW. Therefore limited on rather niche very premium models, and will compete with niche models of other EV sub-brands like e-tron, EQ, I.D. etc (while core BMW EVs will compete with volume models of those EV sub-brands of VW, Audi, MB etc). BMW i is more like a halo sub-brand than a true EV sub-brand. BMW will address mass EV demand via core brands & models!

BMW i PHEVs & EVREx will become full EVs. New tech will be introduced to some models: eg. H2 fuel-cells. New materials & composites will be used for some components. New ConnectedDrive stuff will be introduced (incl Level 5 autonomous driving). New interface solutions will be introduced in BMW i vehicles etc. Tech that will eventually trickle down to core BMW Group brands.

Nothing much has changed. That all has been the plan from the beginning.
The only significant change is the scrapped i5 - a full-size family-oriented EV. Which should have already been introduced in 2017. But instead BMW have opted for a more exotic, and more advanced full-size luxurious EV few years down the line.
Electrification of core BMW Group brands & models has always been a plan. It's the only natural thing to happen.

All this is good to hear, but I just want to restate that there are comprises involved when even with these highly flexible architectures when you try to accommodate all of these different propulsion systems. I'm excited to see how it all plays out.