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If/when do you think BEVs will be 50% of annual new car sales in China, the US and EU?


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I wonder when European brands raise the warranty, 2-3 year for expensive cars is shameful.
European car brands don't have to. There's no financial incenstives to do so. Korean brand only offered 7 because they desperately needed a unique selling point to convince consumers to not buy a Japanese or German brand. Chinese brand are doing so to squash barriers to purchase both from consumers and dealers who might buy a 2-3 year old car as stock
 
European car brands don't have to. There's no financial incenstives to do so. Korean brand only offered 7 because they desperately needed a unique selling point to convince consumers to not buy a Japanese or German brand. Chinese brand are doing so to squash barriers to purchase both from consumers and dealers who might buy a 2-3 year old car as stock

Let us first distinguish between European and German here. European car brands besides German ones are decimated everywhere else but Europe. And before some pedantic fool says - "but Ferrari...", I am talking mass market here, not super niche exotics. So of course there was an incentive to offer better warranties to stay competitive but they didn't and they failed (among other reasons).

And German brands face the same fate once the facade of "superior German engineering" fades.
 
Let us first distinguish between European and German here. European car brands besides German ones are decimated everywhere else but Europe.

This premise is kinda wrong as they were never a thing for the global markets to begin with. And some old cheap relics sold as new cars in developing countries doesn't count.
 
This premise is kinda wrong as they were never a thing for the global markets to begin with. And some old cheap relics sold as new cars in developing countries doesn't count.
True. But at least there was a time when Jaguars and Alfa Romeos were a thing here in US.
 
True. But at least there was a time when Jaguars and Alfa Romeos were a thing here in US.

Sure but there are so many other European brands, and none really went global

Thinking about it, really the only countries with truly global penetration are Germany, Japan and Korea
 
The end of year situation in the UK

Car makers again missed the UK’s mandated target for electric vehicle sales in 2025, despite slashing EV prices by more than £5.5 billion in self-administered discounts, raising further questions from the country’s largest trade body on whether the ZEV scheme is still fit for purpose.

The UK achieved a record number of EV sales last year (473,340) – and overall new car sales surpassed two million registrations for the first time since 2019 – but its 23.4% market share was 92,354 sales short of reaching the UK’s mandated 28% target. Since it was introduced in 2024, the ZEV target has yet to be hit.

So, £5.5 Billion in discounts, and it still attracts a notional £1.385 Billion in fines. The sum of that divided by the number of EVs sold equates to a burden on the manufacturers of £14,545 per vehicle (which makes some sense since there's no point discounting more than you'll get fined).

... good work ... /s
 

It's just a CES hype thing to attract investors. We're not stupid, right?

Some random company like that? Impossible considering the billions being poured into this by the actual players in the field...

Thinking about it, really the only countries with truly global penetration are Germany, Japan and Korea

I forgot about the UK! Land/Range Rover is still a thing of course. As are Bentley and Rolls Royce.
 
There is no news to be found here. Only your hate towards EVs.

In any event, it will be interesting to watch developments over the course of the next 5 some years to witness whether BEVs and their technology will have accomplished winning over a significant majority of customers in Europe, Japan and the U.S.
 
over the course of the next 5 some years to witness whether BEVs and their technology will have accomplished winning over a significant majority of customers in Europe, Japan and the U.S.

Japan doesn't even have a proper mandate for BEV's, only a goal, hence they're currently only at <5% and simple 'would like' to be carbon neutral by 2035, so I'd be very surprised if they made it to 50% in 5 years. The USA is nowhere near >50% yet and since the administration pulled the plug on incentives it will be doing well to maintain much growth from the ~10% or so it reached in 2025

Europe could go either way - the slight relaxation in the emissions rules could open the door for them to abandon BEV in favour of hybrid, if they carry on as before 50% might be a possibility.
 
Europe could go either way - the slight relaxation in the emissions rules could open the door for them to abandon BEV in favour of hybrid, if they carry on as before 50% might be a possibility.

I think western Europe will go EV. I don't know anyone who has bought one that's gone back to an ICE vehicle. Oslo is now 50% EV, Norway is just under 30%, every day that number increases.
 

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