Kilcrohane
Porsche Perfektionist
Well, well, what have we here:
http://www.manager-magazin.de/unter...nersuche-vw-und-bmw-kontaktiert-a-954450.html
This is seismic. It's nothing less than JLR's PR juggernaut finally smashing into the brick wall of reality. It is Aston Martin 'on stilts'.
It is the first breach in the wall of PR surrounding and sustaining JLR and allows the public for the first time, unmediated by their usual media helpers, to glimpse the true state of this 'Potemkin' outfit.
And of course, outside of this obscure German language specialist publication you will not find this story reproduced hardly at all. It will be be buried and forgotten about within a week, which is why I wanted to bring it to Germancarforum.com.
First of all, I want to say that one would, indeed, should have expected such a story to have appeared from the likes of Georg Kacher, doyen of automotive matters all, expert, analyst and the the non plus ultra of journalists with an 'inside track', famous for his 'deep dive' articles on makers' secret product plans up to five years hence, in the likes of Automobile Magazine and the many, many other publications he writes for. But no.
Neither did the likes of Steve Cropley, Hilton Holloway or Julian Rendell, all apparently seasoned, respected UK automotive industry experts and analysts, always busy uncovering exciting forward developments, almost it seems daily, on their beloved JLR, poster-child for the UK's claimed manufacturing and engineering renaissance, but no.
Neither did Nick Gibbs, a rising in profile freelancer for the well respected Automotive News publication, and for Haymarket automotive publications like Pistonheads, with again apparently a very favoured inside track on all matters ongoing at JLR, particularly strategic commercial ones, but no. Can't think why.
As Aston Martin and its wholly sustained by PR James Bond edifice ran into the brick wall of real engine and other tech requirements, post their sell off from Ford, with an about five year delay, to run down and exhaust Ford's investment legacy, approximately 2007-2012, so has JLR too, approx. 2008-2013, but with obviously far bigger consequences, compared to the circa 5,000 units a year producing Aston Martin.
I knew this would happen, as it was unavoidable and inevitable, as sure as night follows day, and either hinted at or explicitly said so in my often derided as 'rants' former contributions to GCF.
We know with the benefit of hindsight what became of Aston Martin out of the urgent need to seek out capable engines and associated tech - it has became a de facto if not yet de jure brand of Daimler - again as I predicted here on GCF and elsewhere it would, long before it became blindingly obvious to all.
We know that like Aston Martin a 'backdoor channel' of fellow countryman/former work colleagues relationship was used to initiate a hopefully favoured approach to securing an engine supply. Ulrich Bez, born in Stuttgart, former high-level engineer/manager in Porsche and so on, in the case of Aston Martin and Mercedes-Benz, and Dr Ralf Speth, ex of BMW and Bavarian born in the case of JLR and BMW.
Unlike Dr Bez, Aston Martin and Daimler, we know from the Manager Magazin article that BMW have rebuffed Dr Speth's and JLR's advances; the VW situation is unknown.
Now, why is this so important, so seismic? I hope to the majority this should be abundantly obvious. Nevertheless, let's spell it out.
What it means in essence is that JLR, beyond their presumed at-least competitive 'Hotfire' 4-cylinder engines, due sometime next year, do not have any engines capable of competing with the ever-improving class standards, set by the likes of BMW, Volkswagen-Audi and Mercedes-Benz, but even more importantly and even more pressingly do not have any large petrol or diesel engines that can meet the legal EU 6 emission regulations, due in force in 2015.
This is what drove Aston Martin into the clutches of Daimler, with the happy for Daimler spin-off that they got the coveted premium badge to put on their coming high-end SUVs, to go up against the Bentley and Rolls-Royce SUVs.
The engine emission regs, like the 2015 EU 6, and similar coming US regs, to do with 'CAFE', have forced JLR to do the same - seek out in panicked fashion an urgently required supply of engines and the associated tech..
What this means of course is that JLR's current V8 and V6 petrol engines - one and the same of course, as the V6 is essentially the V8, with its common block, just a different head(s) - and current V6 and V8 diesels are unable to meet EU 6.
This shouldn't be a surprise, as the JLR V8(/V6) 'AJ-133' engine dates back to the Ford-funded 1997 Jaguar 'AJ-V8', with its last major update - to 5 litres capacity and direct injection - in 2009. To make this engine EU 6 compliant would probably take a prohibitive amount of work and cost, compared to a clean-sheet design, like Audi/Bentley's recent 4-litre V8, and the supercharging would still leave it inherent-by-design behind the turbocharged competition in all-important fuel economy.
Similarly, the V6/V8 diesels, 'AJD-V6'/Ford 'Lion V8 diesel', date back ultimately to PSA's design from 1999, with the last major update back in 2009, and again would appear to be prohibitively expensive to make EU 6 compliant, and would probably still have inferior performance and fuel consumption characteristics compared to the likes of BMW's current 3-litre I6 diesel and Mercedes' due in 2015/2016 I6 diesels.
But it would be wrong to think it is just the 2015 EU 6 'brick wall' that JLR is due to slam in to, making naught of all its huge PR efforts of the last five years or so.
In addition to the urgent need to have engines complying with EU 6 JLR are falling further and further behind in the base performance characteristics of their large petrol and diesel engines compared to the German trio, and others, like GM/Cadillac.
The V8/V6 supercharged petrol engine is a gas-guzzler par excellence. Some people say rich folks couldn't care less about fuel economy, especially for rich sheikhs and so on, but the truth is the majority of customers are not oil well-owning sheikhs, but those who care about preferring to fill up every 350 miles minimum, not every 200 miles, as in the case of a 5-litre S/C Range Rover for example, doing 13 mpg US typically.
The petrol engines from the German trios, whether they be 4, 4.4, or even the 5.5 litres in AMGs, generally run around one-fourth to one-third better fuel economy than JLR's. That is significant.
For large diesel engines it is the same if not worse. BMW already has a six-cylinder diesel with much higher ouput than JLR's 4.4-litre V8 diesel and up to 30% better fuel economy. The latest development of JLR's aging V6 diesel, in the new Range Rover Sport, with 288 horsepower, is markedly inferior in performance to BMW's base-level 3-litre I6 diesel, with only 254 horsepower. see here:
http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/...sdv6-schwergewichtige-diesel-suv-8031238.html
Then there's the need to align with China's penal tax system for engines over 4 litres capacity. JLR's 3-litre V6 S/C petrol is suitable but reports already show its fuel thirst to be similar if not as much in practice as the larger 5 litre V8 version, with some reports of as much as 20 litres per 100 kms fuel consumption in city driving usage, which of course is totally unacceptable.
There's another factor too, beyond EU 6 per se, when it comes to diesels, powerful diesels, particularly. Contrary to first impressions, diesels are now starting to make inroads in the US market. All the German Big 3 now have EU 6-equivalent/'Clean Diesel'/'50 states(US) legal' diesels on sale in the US, and they are beginning to take off.
Although it may seem ridiculous to pay $80k for an Audi A8 TDI 'Clean Diesel' for example in the US and worry about gas mileage, the difference between the overall typical average 30 mpg US fuel economy available from the likes of the 3-litre diesel A8 is striking against the 15 mpg US typical for the likes of an XJ 3-litre S/C AWD.
JLR desperately needs an EU 6/US legal 'Clean Diesel' offering in the US, unless it wants to be swamped further by not just the German premium trio but also coming offerings from maybe Cadillac, Buick, Fiat-Chrysler's Maserati, and some others.
There are other factors gnawing away at JLR's approaching obsolescence large engines. One important one is Ford, the former owner of JLR of course, to clean break from its legacy engine supply operations to JLR.
An acute reason for this is Ford's expansion of its Bridgend Wales engine plant, in order to build the new 1.5 litre and 3-cylinder 1-litre EcoBoost engines. Currently of course, Ford some six years after selling JLR are still making all of JLR's engines, either in Bridgend, Dagenham, Valencia Spain/Cleveland Ohio, and possibly Mexico for the 4.4 litre V8 diesel.
Unlike Volvo, also previously under Ford ownership, JLR still haven't sorted out their own engine requirements, whereas Volvo, just over 3 years on from Ford's sell off, are on the cusp of becoming entirely independent of Ford engine supply.
As said, Ford Bridgend is expanding rapidly, and will be sure to want JLR's V8/V6 petrol engine build operation out, as soon as possible.
Ford Dagenham may not be as acute in its need as Bridgend to evict the 'squatter' JLR, so it can concentrate on its own Ford requirements, but even though the Ford-supplied 2.2-litre Duratorq diesel engine to JLR should disappear with the move to Wolverhampton sometime in 2015, that still leaves the V6 diesel, with no home, and an unnecessary complication for Ford's overall Dagenham operations, with again I'm sure them wanting this operation out.
So, those are the main reasons why JLR is in what looks like panicked advances to BMW and VW, to get engines. BMW has said no, in what looks like no uncertain terms, and I would bet VW group would hardly let their brand new 4-litre biturbo V8 for instance go to an outside customer, however much they'd be willing to pay.
So where does this leave JLR? In a worse place than Aston Martin, that's for sure.
Aston Martin and Dr Bez's successor at least live to see another day, although AM is effectively no longer an independent company.
For JLR, have little doubt, this is extremely serious. Without its large petrol and diesel engines, bang goes its maximum margin products, the likes of the Range Rover S/C. Okay, it may still survive on the presumably EU 6 compliant new Hotfire engines, but they're only 4-cylinders, intended mainly for the Evoque, new 2015 Freelander and low/no margin variants of the 2015 'baby Jag'.
As I see it the best hope of JLR is to apply for some kind of temporary exemption from the coming into force in 2015 EU 6 regulation and soon after US enhanced CAFE regulations, until they can develop their own compliant engines. This may take 3 to 5 years. Cash to fund it shouldn't be a problem, as they claim they are already spending £2.5 bn every year on R&D, and have just reported over $1 billion in profit for the last quarter.
Thing is, their competitors and the authorities would never allow such a thing. Aston Martin, a relatively tiny maker, may get dispensation for a while to continue selling its old Ford-derived engined vehicles, but not a 300k+ units a year volume maker.
So where does this in the end leave JLR? If Winterkorn and Ferdinand Piech of VW give the 'go forth and multiply' to JLR, like BMW have already done, even if JLR offer ridiculous money to buy VW's excellent petrol and diesel engines, that basically leaves JLR stuffed, quite simply and plainly.
I see no way out for them. They have brought this on themselves, putting PR at all costs above real R&D, and proper vehicle platforms, engine programs and so on, which would have given them a future of some sorts, after Ford's investment and product legacy ran out, after around 5 years, as it did with Aston Martin.
As I said at the start, this is Aston Martin on stilts, and that is why it hasn't been reported widely and won't be.
http://www.manager-magazin.de/unter...nersuche-vw-und-bmw-kontaktiert-a-954450.html
This is seismic. It's nothing less than JLR's PR juggernaut finally smashing into the brick wall of reality. It is Aston Martin 'on stilts'.
It is the first breach in the wall of PR surrounding and sustaining JLR and allows the public for the first time, unmediated by their usual media helpers, to glimpse the true state of this 'Potemkin' outfit.
And of course, outside of this obscure German language specialist publication you will not find this story reproduced hardly at all. It will be be buried and forgotten about within a week, which is why I wanted to bring it to Germancarforum.com.
First of all, I want to say that one would, indeed, should have expected such a story to have appeared from the likes of Georg Kacher, doyen of automotive matters all, expert, analyst and the the non plus ultra of journalists with an 'inside track', famous for his 'deep dive' articles on makers' secret product plans up to five years hence, in the likes of Automobile Magazine and the many, many other publications he writes for. But no.
Neither did the likes of Steve Cropley, Hilton Holloway or Julian Rendell, all apparently seasoned, respected UK automotive industry experts and analysts, always busy uncovering exciting forward developments, almost it seems daily, on their beloved JLR, poster-child for the UK's claimed manufacturing and engineering renaissance, but no.
Neither did Nick Gibbs, a rising in profile freelancer for the well respected Automotive News publication, and for Haymarket automotive publications like Pistonheads, with again apparently a very favoured inside track on all matters ongoing at JLR, particularly strategic commercial ones, but no. Can't think why.
As Aston Martin and its wholly sustained by PR James Bond edifice ran into the brick wall of real engine and other tech requirements, post their sell off from Ford, with an about five year delay, to run down and exhaust Ford's investment legacy, approximately 2007-2012, so has JLR too, approx. 2008-2013, but with obviously far bigger consequences, compared to the circa 5,000 units a year producing Aston Martin.
I knew this would happen, as it was unavoidable and inevitable, as sure as night follows day, and either hinted at or explicitly said so in my often derided as 'rants' former contributions to GCF.
We know with the benefit of hindsight what became of Aston Martin out of the urgent need to seek out capable engines and associated tech - it has became a de facto if not yet de jure brand of Daimler - again as I predicted here on GCF and elsewhere it would, long before it became blindingly obvious to all.
We know that like Aston Martin a 'backdoor channel' of fellow countryman/former work colleagues relationship was used to initiate a hopefully favoured approach to securing an engine supply. Ulrich Bez, born in Stuttgart, former high-level engineer/manager in Porsche and so on, in the case of Aston Martin and Mercedes-Benz, and Dr Ralf Speth, ex of BMW and Bavarian born in the case of JLR and BMW.
Unlike Dr Bez, Aston Martin and Daimler, we know from the Manager Magazin article that BMW have rebuffed Dr Speth's and JLR's advances; the VW situation is unknown.
Now, why is this so important, so seismic? I hope to the majority this should be abundantly obvious. Nevertheless, let's spell it out.
What it means in essence is that JLR, beyond their presumed at-least competitive 'Hotfire' 4-cylinder engines, due sometime next year, do not have any engines capable of competing with the ever-improving class standards, set by the likes of BMW, Volkswagen-Audi and Mercedes-Benz, but even more importantly and even more pressingly do not have any large petrol or diesel engines that can meet the legal EU 6 emission regulations, due in force in 2015.
This is what drove Aston Martin into the clutches of Daimler, with the happy for Daimler spin-off that they got the coveted premium badge to put on their coming high-end SUVs, to go up against the Bentley and Rolls-Royce SUVs.
The engine emission regs, like the 2015 EU 6, and similar coming US regs, to do with 'CAFE', have forced JLR to do the same - seek out in panicked fashion an urgently required supply of engines and the associated tech..
What this means of course is that JLR's current V8 and V6 petrol engines - one and the same of course, as the V6 is essentially the V8, with its common block, just a different head(s) - and current V6 and V8 diesels are unable to meet EU 6.
This shouldn't be a surprise, as the JLR V8(/V6) 'AJ-133' engine dates back to the Ford-funded 1997 Jaguar 'AJ-V8', with its last major update - to 5 litres capacity and direct injection - in 2009. To make this engine EU 6 compliant would probably take a prohibitive amount of work and cost, compared to a clean-sheet design, like Audi/Bentley's recent 4-litre V8, and the supercharging would still leave it inherent-by-design behind the turbocharged competition in all-important fuel economy.
Similarly, the V6/V8 diesels, 'AJD-V6'/Ford 'Lion V8 diesel', date back ultimately to PSA's design from 1999, with the last major update back in 2009, and again would appear to be prohibitively expensive to make EU 6 compliant, and would probably still have inferior performance and fuel consumption characteristics compared to the likes of BMW's current 3-litre I6 diesel and Mercedes' due in 2015/2016 I6 diesels.
But it would be wrong to think it is just the 2015 EU 6 'brick wall' that JLR is due to slam in to, making naught of all its huge PR efforts of the last five years or so.
In addition to the urgent need to have engines complying with EU 6 JLR are falling further and further behind in the base performance characteristics of their large petrol and diesel engines compared to the German trio, and others, like GM/Cadillac.
The V8/V6 supercharged petrol engine is a gas-guzzler par excellence. Some people say rich folks couldn't care less about fuel economy, especially for rich sheikhs and so on, but the truth is the majority of customers are not oil well-owning sheikhs, but those who care about preferring to fill up every 350 miles minimum, not every 200 miles, as in the case of a 5-litre S/C Range Rover for example, doing 13 mpg US typically.
The petrol engines from the German trios, whether they be 4, 4.4, or even the 5.5 litres in AMGs, generally run around one-fourth to one-third better fuel economy than JLR's. That is significant.
For large diesel engines it is the same if not worse. BMW already has a six-cylinder diesel with much higher ouput than JLR's 4.4-litre V8 diesel and up to 30% better fuel economy. The latest development of JLR's aging V6 diesel, in the new Range Rover Sport, with 288 horsepower, is markedly inferior in performance to BMW's base-level 3-litre I6 diesel, with only 254 horsepower. see here:
http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/...sdv6-schwergewichtige-diesel-suv-8031238.html
Then there's the need to align with China's penal tax system for engines over 4 litres capacity. JLR's 3-litre V6 S/C petrol is suitable but reports already show its fuel thirst to be similar if not as much in practice as the larger 5 litre V8 version, with some reports of as much as 20 litres per 100 kms fuel consumption in city driving usage, which of course is totally unacceptable.
There's another factor too, beyond EU 6 per se, when it comes to diesels, powerful diesels, particularly. Contrary to first impressions, diesels are now starting to make inroads in the US market. All the German Big 3 now have EU 6-equivalent/'Clean Diesel'/'50 states(US) legal' diesels on sale in the US, and they are beginning to take off.
Although it may seem ridiculous to pay $80k for an Audi A8 TDI 'Clean Diesel' for example in the US and worry about gas mileage, the difference between the overall typical average 30 mpg US fuel economy available from the likes of the 3-litre diesel A8 is striking against the 15 mpg US typical for the likes of an XJ 3-litre S/C AWD.
JLR desperately needs an EU 6/US legal 'Clean Diesel' offering in the US, unless it wants to be swamped further by not just the German premium trio but also coming offerings from maybe Cadillac, Buick, Fiat-Chrysler's Maserati, and some others.
There are other factors gnawing away at JLR's approaching obsolescence large engines. One important one is Ford, the former owner of JLR of course, to clean break from its legacy engine supply operations to JLR.
An acute reason for this is Ford's expansion of its Bridgend Wales engine plant, in order to build the new 1.5 litre and 3-cylinder 1-litre EcoBoost engines. Currently of course, Ford some six years after selling JLR are still making all of JLR's engines, either in Bridgend, Dagenham, Valencia Spain/Cleveland Ohio, and possibly Mexico for the 4.4 litre V8 diesel.
Unlike Volvo, also previously under Ford ownership, JLR still haven't sorted out their own engine requirements, whereas Volvo, just over 3 years on from Ford's sell off, are on the cusp of becoming entirely independent of Ford engine supply.
As said, Ford Bridgend is expanding rapidly, and will be sure to want JLR's V8/V6 petrol engine build operation out, as soon as possible.
Ford Dagenham may not be as acute in its need as Bridgend to evict the 'squatter' JLR, so it can concentrate on its own Ford requirements, but even though the Ford-supplied 2.2-litre Duratorq diesel engine to JLR should disappear with the move to Wolverhampton sometime in 2015, that still leaves the V6 diesel, with no home, and an unnecessary complication for Ford's overall Dagenham operations, with again I'm sure them wanting this operation out.
So, those are the main reasons why JLR is in what looks like panicked advances to BMW and VW, to get engines. BMW has said no, in what looks like no uncertain terms, and I would bet VW group would hardly let their brand new 4-litre biturbo V8 for instance go to an outside customer, however much they'd be willing to pay.
So where does this leave JLR? In a worse place than Aston Martin, that's for sure.
Aston Martin and Dr Bez's successor at least live to see another day, although AM is effectively no longer an independent company.
For JLR, have little doubt, this is extremely serious. Without its large petrol and diesel engines, bang goes its maximum margin products, the likes of the Range Rover S/C. Okay, it may still survive on the presumably EU 6 compliant new Hotfire engines, but they're only 4-cylinders, intended mainly for the Evoque, new 2015 Freelander and low/no margin variants of the 2015 'baby Jag'.
As I see it the best hope of JLR is to apply for some kind of temporary exemption from the coming into force in 2015 EU 6 regulation and soon after US enhanced CAFE regulations, until they can develop their own compliant engines. This may take 3 to 5 years. Cash to fund it shouldn't be a problem, as they claim they are already spending £2.5 bn every year on R&D, and have just reported over $1 billion in profit for the last quarter.
Thing is, their competitors and the authorities would never allow such a thing. Aston Martin, a relatively tiny maker, may get dispensation for a while to continue selling its old Ford-derived engined vehicles, but not a 300k+ units a year volume maker.
So where does this in the end leave JLR? If Winterkorn and Ferdinand Piech of VW give the 'go forth and multiply' to JLR, like BMW have already done, even if JLR offer ridiculous money to buy VW's excellent petrol and diesel engines, that basically leaves JLR stuffed, quite simply and plainly.
I see no way out for them. They have brought this on themselves, putting PR at all costs above real R&D, and proper vehicle platforms, engine programs and so on, which would have given them a future of some sorts, after Ford's investment and product legacy ran out, after around 5 years, as it did with Aston Martin.
As I said at the start, this is Aston Martin on stilts, and that is why it hasn't been reported widely and won't be.
