The future of automobile. What do you think?

[Giannis]

Dear friends, this is what I've been thinking the last days. And all those new electric and hybrid cars just can't let me relax. So, where is the automobile as we know it heading?

I recall Gerhard Richter saying that the internal combustion engine has still a bright future ahead. But with what fuel? With what electronics and electric systems?

Is hydrogen the next gasoline/diesel as we have seen in BMW's 7 Hydrogene or MB's H2 vehicles?

Are hybrid systems paired with a gas or diesel engine the future, a transitional stage, or just a "joke", to help our minds accept the full electric future?

Also, are hybrid systems viable, since in the end, an IC engine is the range booster and powers the electric generator, so power still comes from gasoline/diesel? Or are those systems transitional, and we will see batteries with a range of 500-600kms and almost instant "fill-up", like at a gas station?

I'd really want to hear your opinions on this!

 

[Shining Star]

First of all, I don't think that the combustion engine is dead, or will become dead anytime soon. New drivetrains like electric drive and Hydrogen will take years more of R&D to make them more suitable for everyday use, not to mention the fact that many new technologies require a whole new infrastructure; which is bound to take time.

However, we must consider the impact that conventional engines have on our environment; and the fact that, when ready, new drivetrains could be very compelling, especially some new high performance ones.

As for hybrids, I do believe that they will become the engine of the future. The technology is proven; and hybrids can be tweaked to provide lots of horsepower and a thrilling ride. Everybody seems to be jumping on the Hybrid bandwagon; not just Toyota and Honda but also Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

Hydrogen still needs some work; and I don't really see any carmaker producing a successful mass production Hydrogen car until 2015 at the least.

As for electric vehicles (ev), I find that car companies are rushing to show electric concepts and production vehicles. The first mainstream EVs like the Volt are bound to have some shortcomings, but has technology progresses EVs will eventually be able to travel longer on a charge than some will now.

...Which brings me to the future of the combustion engine...although I do not see the combustion engine itself dying off anytime soon, I do see carmakers trying to make the engine more efficient; using four cylinders to make 300 HP cars. I honestly don't see the future of the combustion engine being big V12s and twin turbo V8s, but I do see getting great performance from engines that we wouldn't have considered using a couple years ago.

Of course, only time will tell what will really happen with automobiles and their drivetrains.

 

[vabboud]

forget all what is said in the media, forget the green hype, forget the environmental policies of governments (who use green arguments to create more taxes).

it's all an issue of economics.

technically the IC engine can still be refined, downszed and made cleaner with a large margiin to spare. we can have reliable, safe, efficient and green 1 litter 300hp turbo 3 pots, with 40g Co2 emission and 2l/100km fuel efficiency. technically nothing impossible.

the real idea lies in cost. as i have been saying (not so often) for the past 2-3 years.
right now hybrids are being sold at a premium, generating substantial profit for the companies that produce them, their environmental impact is minimal at best, at some cases they are overall more polluting than their regular counterparts. that is if you factor in poluution in fabricating and recycling batteries for example.

given that the green trend has set in through socialist driven governmental policies of western europe, it has become favorable and profitable to amrket cars as such. thus the hybrid and what have you craze.

hybrids as they are conceived today do not make sense, large sedans (S400-S500, LS600h etc...) or SUV's (X6 RX430 etc....) that cosume tons even in hybrid mode, systems still being couple to large engines, sold at an excruciating price. not affordable by the larger segment of the population.

in the future if ecoomies of scale democratize hybrids and remove their premium factor, and the ongoing green trend sinks in deeper, all cars might become hybrids, else it wouldn;t be much different than today, with hybrids sold at a premium for green minded shnobs who think they are saving the planet, whilst not knowing that the organic steak they are having for dinner has released more methane in the atmosphere than all their driving during their lifetime.

it is true that on the longer run the ICE must die, as its essential combustible will run out. But we could still run ICE's on sunflower oil, cow crap, oor any other organic comound. much like the development of batteries could give us something totally different. and if physics evolved enough, we could find a way to harness the earth's gravitational and/or electromagnetic fields to "levitate"

so until then don't think of this as an engineering issue, think of it as a marketing/economically driven issue.