Politics South Africa's political future

[JLBM]

Spent breakfast at Wits School of Governance in Johannesburg listening to my favorite political commentator, Justice Malala, on future political scenarios for South Africa. Had healthy oats for breakfast at home (to offset all those 7 course dinners I'm apparently having) and then found this hard-to-resist spread on my table!

Interesting Q&A with the panel. General consensus is that Cyril Ramaphosa won't make it and our next president will be Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Gauteng ANC wants Ramaphosa in, but all the other provinces will keep Zuma in power to protect their lines of patronage.

Small chance that the Gauteng ANC will split to form an opposition that is ideologically similar to the DA. The DA will do well in the Eastern Cape to absorb the UDM and give Holomisa a plum position as deputy of the DA, like the DA did with Patricia de Lille's ID party in the WC.

I asked Malala if he feels there is a chance that Malema will hijack the ANC in the next decade, he and the panelists say no, which was a relief to hear.. But the EFF will continue its presence and bleat about the nationalisation of banks, expropriation of land and other populist themes.. One of the biggest issues facing us all right now is the nuclear deal and they all agree that we will see another upsetting event like Nenegate (9/12) before Zuma's term is up.

Cabinet reshuffle will happen after the election dust has settled and Mcebisi Jonas' days are very numbered in treasury. Overall, it is a great time for democracy in South Africa!

 

[KiwiRob]

So what do you think is going to happen with Land Reform in South Africa, is there potential for another Zimbabwe like disaster? If this statement is correct the future isn't looking very good.

As of 2016 the South African government has pumped more than R60 billion into land reform projects since 1994. Despite this investment, the land reform programme has not stimulated development in the targeted rural areas. A report by the South African Government's Financial and Fiscal Commission shows that land reform as a mechanism for agricultural development and job creation has failed. A survey by the commission in Limpopo province, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape found that most land reform farms show little or no agricultural activity, the land reform beneficiaries earn little to no income and most of those beneficiaries seek work on surrounding commercial farms instead of actively farming their own land. If farming is taking place on land reform farms, these farms operate below their full agricultural potential and are mainly used for subsistence agriculture. On average, crop production had decreased by 79% since conversion to land reform. In the three provinces surveyed, job losses averaged 84%, with KwaZulu-Natal suffering a 94% job haemorrhage.