BMW chief says focus on EVs leaves Europe open to blackmail.


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BMW chief says focus on EVs leaves Europe open to blackmail.

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SOURCE: https://thedriven.io/2023/09/04/recklessbmw-chief-says-focus-on-evs-leaves-europe-open-to-blackmail/
 
Arabs to the right of me, Congolese to the left of me... here I am stuck in the middle with the EU.
 
Consumers will still be able to buy used ICE cars in 5-10 years. No one is forced to buy an EV.

He's speaking specifically from the point of view of a European car manufacturer, rather than a generalised view.


Just my two cents, but If a nation with a competitive product is active in your market, but isn't politcally aligned with your nation, and can stifle supply of vital materials to your supply chain, its very possible they can manipulate the situation to the benefit of their product instead of yours. You can't then sanction them to balance the scales if you've legislated your own, alternative products out of existence.

It's not quite the same as oil dependence (from the perspective of the motorist at least) - if someone turns off the oil taps, they're not simultaneously offering your customers their own alternative (or that of a politically aligned nation), whereas Chinese influence in battery supply (for example) could conceivably do just that. Ultimately if someone as a consumer is happy enough buying a BYD as they are a BMW, then they may not care, but it's not hard to see why that could end up being bad for a region's economy.

Material supply as a risk is clearly on BMW's mind, the whole 'Circular' thing they're going on about, i.e. recycling, must be part of a risk mitigation strategy as much as an environmental one. In this respect, IIRC, proposed regulations for increasing recycled/recyclable content in batteries coming later and being less stringent than regulations for squeezing out ICE cars, does seem slightly arse-about-face.

Overall, as a region, it does appear that Europe is somewhat dependent on other nations to satiate our personal mobility desires one way or the other, which is another reason to invest heavily in continent wide mobility infrastructure.
 
Overall, as a region, it does appear that Europe is somewhat dependent on other nations to satiate our personal mobility desires one way or the other, which is another reason to invest heavily in continent wide mobility infrastructure.

Great post. This last section really hits the nail on the head: cars are a pretty terrible means of transportation for a majority of use cases.

We like cars because of what they represent: design, engineering, speed, personal mobility BUT the reality for 99.9999% of their use cases is commuting and errands for which they are a terrible tool for the job.

Cars are resource intensive (don't forget all the roads, gas stations and parking lots required to support cars), have a short life cycle, are not recyclable, are expensive to own and maintain, are terribly inefficient at moving large numbers of people, are an urban planning nightmare and so on.

BMW's chief is obviously looking out for BMW's interests but relying on the automobile for a majority of personal transportation is not in our best interests.
 
Overall, as a region, it does appear that Europe is somewhat dependent on other nations to satiate our personal mobility desires one way or the other, which is another reason to invest heavily in continent wide mobility infrastructure.
I haven't seen a roadmap of what the supply chain could like like for European battery manufacturers in 10-20 years. However, that is of little relevance to short sighted politicians and venture capitalists. They want to maximise their gains from the gravy train that is tax credits and R&D grants for battery-related investments. Government funded initiatives always incur at least 10% waste so you can expect many battery related ventures to be inefficient or go bankrupt.

The latter is especially true as there will inevitably be market consolidation with 4-5 players globally leading battery tech in performance and cost. Do I think any battery plants in the UK will be cost leaders? Unlikely and I fear that they will end up with too few customers to be commercially viable. A sad reality but consolidation happens in every industry/sector.

We are also underestimating the magnitude of the shift from fossil fuel to electric for vehicles. It will take decades to complete, the same way rolling out 4G or fibre optic broadband is not complete. Even solar panels haven't been fitted to the roof of all commercial buildings in the EU despite being technology that's decades old.
 

BMW

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, abbreviated as BMW is a German multinational manufacturer of luxury vehicles and motorcycles headquartered in Munich, Bavaria, Germany. The company was founded in 1916 as a manufacturer of aircraft engines, which it produced from 1917 to 1918 and again from 1933 to 1945.
Official website: BMW (Global), BMW (USA)

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